Greatest probability of 0.5% hike from the Fed. The NFP/labour market reports are a fallacy if you look at the revisions. The Fed wants a strong dollar otherwise they risk importing all the inflation they've exported and they want a strong dollar leading into a weakening economy.They have a mandate to hike until something breaks. 2% chance of a soft landing. .
Nice H&S on gold. A 50% retracement takes it back to the 1875 level.
I personally can't see how the fundamentals support the current rally. Outside of the hope narrative, hoping for accommodative monetary policy, hoping for Chinese demand and hoping for more oil output. Unless someone can explain to me what I'm missing for which I'd be genuinely grateful.
Greatest probability of 0.5% hike from the Fed. The NFP/labour market reports are a fallacy if you look at the revisions. The Fed wants a strong dollar otherwise they risk importing all the inflation they've exported and they want a strong dollar leading into a weakening economy.They have a mandate to hike until something breaks. 2% chance of a soft landing. .
Nice H&S on gold. A 50% retracement takes it back to the 1875 level.
Well that would certainly reverse the current rallies in US tech, Gold, and bonds.
I personally can't see how the fundamentals support the current rally. Outside of the hope narrative, hoping for accommodative monetary policy, hoping for Chinese demand and hoping for more oil output. Unless someone can explain to me what I'm missing for which I'd be genuinely grateful.
Powell : 25 and Hawkish....