The Morning Hark - 21 Aug 2023
Today’s focus... Jackson Hole previews fill the void from the lack of top tier data.
China trimmed more benchmark lending rates... 1yr Loan Prime Rate 3.45% vs est 3.4% and prev 3.55%.
Interestingly the 5yr Loan Prime Rate was not cut and stayed at 4.2% vs est 4.05%. 5yr is normally seen as a floor for mortgages, so this has certainly surprised and confused the street. Glass half full, indication something bigger to come, or glass half empty ... its pointless and we're in a doom loop so 10/15bps cuts do little... (stay nimble and let mr price speak).
Limited impact to broader assets with CNH weaker on London open (7.33) despite another fix sub 7.20. At eod the market wants fiscal, not minor cuts or managed balance reduction so another 5/10/15bps of trimming around the edges will not change the property mkt trend.
Japan to increase minimum pay by record (BBG)
UK House Prices ... a national obsession ... asking price -0.1% YoY vs prev 0.5% (MoM dropped -1.9% vs exp -0.2%)
The light data calendar puts the focus back on the Fed’s message… A week spent reading Jackson Hole previews (FT: The choices of strategy for Jay Powell) as there is little on the top tier data front until JPow takes the podium on Friday.
For more reading on this week's key data, see The Weekly Hark...
The Week Ahead
Nomura: The Week Ahead - Jackson Hole, BoK, Bank of Indonesia, Flash PMIs and Tokyo CPI
Scotiabank: The Global Week Ahead - Shifts Happen
Yardeni: The Economic Week Ahead
Newsquawk: Week ahead August 21-25
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All times in British Summer Time (BST)
US (): No Fed Speakers or US data of note
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summer doldrums indeed. but still, the best place to start your day