The rates sell off in August has not been confined to just the US ... it’s been global duration repricing.
Also it is noticeable that 2yr doesn’t like it above 5% or that 2s10s curve is steeper. The past year or so the focus has been pricing more and more ..... through august the mkt has never priced more than a 50% chance of a Sept hike despite how resilient the data has been
Higher for longer .... is more likely then the Fed over hiking
The rates sell off in August has not been confined to just the US ... it’s been global duration repricing.
Also it is noticeable that 2yr doesn’t like it above 5% or that 2s10s curve is steeper. The past year or so the focus has been pricing more and more ..... through august the mkt has never priced more than a 50% chance of a Sept hike despite how resilient the data has been
Higher for longer .... is more likely then the Fed over hiking
100%... name a HF / AM that can take on their 3trillion of reserves. This isn’t Turkey or Argentina ... there is size is bigger then the streets
the central bank can sell out all of the USD that they bought from HF that were playing the weekend gap appreciation trade back sub $6.00 from 2012-14
Very Good !!!!
Yes, "get me to the weekend" !!!!!
Economic Reality seems to be suspended in the US...
Economist are baffled by the "Recession that never comes".
Finally, we have Interest Rates at a Level, that might slow the US Economy down.
I hope the Fed doesn't Over Tighten and Blow it.....
Thanks for your insights.
Is the PBOC's stack of chips really higher than the markets'? I think not