I have a real hard time understanding the narrative that inflation is going to fall straight back below the Fed's target without putting up a fight. Especially with charts like this one. 👇
Yes, OER is soon going to begin helping CPI, but services, food, and energy prices are still rising. Not to mentioned, home prices have also started to rise again (hurting the OER dis-inflation narrative). I'm just not seeing the evidence needed to believe J. Powell is done or that the inflation monster has been defeated.
My analysis is actually pointing to the economy still being in "Stagflation". It's a difficult call and highly subjective, but that's where it appears much of the data is pointing.
Excellent Summary....
Wish I could say for sure the FED is done, but I can't....
Outside of some Exogenous Event, I don't see Rate Cuts, as soon as March 2024.
The FED, may or may not be done raising rates, but the "Higher for Longer"
will be with for much of 2024, I believe...
The FED is TERRIFIED that Inflation will Re-Accelerate .......and I can agree with that position.
I have a real hard time understanding the narrative that inflation is going to fall straight back below the Fed's target without putting up a fight. Especially with charts like this one. 👇
Yes, OER is soon going to begin helping CPI, but services, food, and energy prices are still rising. Not to mentioned, home prices have also started to rise again (hurting the OER dis-inflation narrative). I'm just not seeing the evidence needed to believe J. Powell is done or that the inflation monster has been defeated.
https://substack.com/@capitalnotes/note/c-21331260?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=2t3j8
I agree. The drop so far in CPI has been the easy part. I’m not sure why we’re so confident in continued disinflation.
My analysis is actually pointing to the economy still being in "Stagflation". It's a difficult call and highly subjective, but that's where it appears much of the data is pointing.
https://capitalnotes.substack.com/p/the-great-debate-economic-cycle-update