Read on the Trading Floor - 24 Nov 2023
Today’s focus… ECB chatter, European data, 2024 previews and more
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Macro Themes At Play
... hmm what's been "Read on the Trading Floor" today?... NFL recaps (poor Lions), Black Friday shopping (NYT is it what it used to be?), premier league previews (The Guardian) .... the market is naturally taking a breather, enjoying a lull in activity, re-energising the batteries before embracing the last 3, potentially 4 weeks of trading in 2023. USD is softer, assets are buoyant to finish the week, seasonals are a powerful force, mkt is trying to see if Chinese property market has found a low (Xi Tolerance for Property Pain Nears Limit as Rescue Emerges) whilst Europe's Ifo is also showing signs of stabilisation. We're seeing positive signs for RoW growth profile relative to US as we return to the middle of the USD smile.
Theme 1 - European data plus (more) ECB speak
Signs of stabilisation in Europe as the German Business outlook survey reached a 6month high. Lagarde was once again on the tapes, she seems to speak at least once a week these days, with her message on point. Repeating once again that they've given themselves room/time to observe as they've already done a lot...
Econostream - Lagarde: Fight Against Inflation Not Over Yet
Econostream - They Said It: Recent Comments of ECB Governing Council Members
FT - Jump in UK consumer confidence dampens rate cut expectations
Livesquawk - German Ifo Business Confidence Ticks Higher; Economy ‘Stabilising’
ING - German Ifo points to a bottoming out, not a rebound in November
Source: Economic Calendar (tradingeconomics.com)
Theme 2 - Five of the latest 2024 year ahead pieces to populate our Year Ahead Channel
HFI Research - A Realistic Look At The Oil Market Balance In 2024
UBS CIO Global Livestream - Year Ahead: A new world
ING - Rates Outlook 2024: The big US fiscal deficit and effect on market rates
Oxford Economics - Global Macroeconomic Themes 2024: Few opportunities in a gloomy landscape
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