Morning Call Script - 10 Nov 2023
Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar
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What’s Moved Overnight
A sleepy week has been shaken by an ugly 30year auction, which tailed 5.3bps, the most on record and primary banks took down double their normal avg (almost ¼ of the issuance) ... On the London open US 2s @ 5.02%, 10s @ 4.62%, 30y 4.75% ... 2s10s and 5s30s steepening on the week after auction demand for 3yr was solid, 10y not as good and 30y saw an historic dislike of duration
There was also a ransomware attack on ICBC, with trades settled by a UBS key
JPow pushed back against market pricing... higher for longer, labour market remains tight but coming into better balance, he wont hesitate to hike again if needed
Reuters - Fed's Powell, others, not ready to call policy peak
CME FedWatch... June 2024 cut odds have dropped from 70% to 60%.
APAC stocks in the red (Nikkei -15bps, CSI -65bps) following Wall Street lower , USD also stronger in FX as "soft landing" sentiment reverses into the weekend ... AUD 0.6365, JPY 151.40, NZD 0.59
For greater detail on the themes captured on @HarksterHQ watch out for Read on the Trading Floor by 17.30GMT (12.30EST) whilst tomorrow, the Saturday Hark Back will capture the themes of the week when there’s more time to digest them
Have a great day, and keep smiling!
Podcast for the Commute
JP Morgan US Rates - Death Cab for QT?
The Day Ahead
NOK (07:00): Core Inflation
GBP (07:00): GDP
ECB Lagarde and Fed Logan at 12:30, Bostic at 14:00.
USD (15:00): University of Michigan
Stay informed throughout the day with our new commentary feed (‘Intraday Market Colour’) highlighting key notes, topics du jour, and HarksterHQ’s market updates around key data points and headlines.
Available on the Harkster Research Platform.
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Thanks for the Auction results