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The Weekly Hark - 28 May 2023

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The Weekly Hark - 28 May 2023

Resilience in US data remains the defining theme of May

May 28, 2023
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The Weekly Hark - 28 May 2023

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The market went looking for a June pause and deep cuts into H2, but the strength of the US consumer, historically tight labour market, Fed's Logan opening the risk of a June hike as well as consolidation in the Regional banking sector has led to US2s breaching 4.6%. A steady rise of over 70bps in May, that now represents one more hike split evenly across June and July, as well as unwinding the odds of a US recession in 2023.

With initial claims showing no signs of softening, inflation double target, why would the Fed June SEP not deliver one more hike to kill demand? If the labour market is not weakening towards their Dec 4.5% forecast, higher for longer is their only option as credit to the consumer has yet to slow or FCI tighten.


Key pieces that capture last week's defining narratives...

  • Debt Ceiling talks continue: Bloomberg Oddlots podcast 

  • RBNZ paradigm shift: Westpac 

  • Macro Hive: A big beat for UK inflation 

  • Nvidia Smash Earnings: The Last Bear Standing

  • ING rates in play: The next steps for US interest rates


  • Marc to Market: June 2023 Monthly 

  • Nomura Podcast: The Week Ahead

  • Adam Mancini: SPX is on the edge of a major breakout


FX Macro's weekly is Harkster HQ's first port of call on a Sunday morning. It delivers an in-depth analysis of macro developments, CB comments, sentiment and cross-asset analysis. The summary section (chart of the week below) is an incredibly succinct snapshot of all the relevant macro drivers for each G10 currency.   

Outlook for Week 22/2023:  

fx:macro
Outlook for Week 22/2023
Welcome to issue #57 of fx:macro! This newsletter is quite long, so there's a Summary section at the top. Everything you find there is derived from data and news I show in detail in the second and third parts of the newsletter (Week in Review and Market Analysis…
Read more
4 months ago · 15 likes · 2 comments · FXMacroGuy

Follow in the Harkster ‘Feed of the Week’ channel.


A snip of FX Macro's summary section.

Source:

fx:macro

 

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The Weekly Hark - 28 May 2023

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The Weekly Hark - 28 May 2023

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FXMacroGuy
Writes fx:macro
May 28

Thanks for the shout-out!

I miss the daily Morning Hark for the great commentary and the useful links.

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Steven VanHeyningen
May 28

Looks like the Fed isn't done.....

I do see non-Gov't data that shows Inflation is coming done faster.........Truflation.

And I have read other reports, that the Economy is weaker, than the Gov't data shows.

Under the Biden Admin., I trust the Gov't data less and less. They've shown themselves

to be very dishonest, for Political Gain.

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