The Weekly Hark - 22 July 2023
Consolidation
The explosiveness of the post-US CPI move ran into a cycle of choppy range-bound price action this past week as summer holidays, the British Open, Fed blackout window, and limited top-tier data (outside of UK CPI) led to USD and US yields consolidating the initial NFP/CPI soft landing theme. The bar to initiate new positions proved too much ahead of a stacked final week of Central Bank meetings (FOMC, NBH, ECB, BoJ), key rebalancing flows (Month End and Corp T+2) as well as key data events (European PMI's, IFO, AU CPI, Tokyo CPI and Durable Goods).
The key pieces that capture last week's defining narratives
Saxo Bank FX Update: The end of sterling outperformance. Euro next?
The MacroTourist: BUY-WRITE ETFs' POPULARITY
ECB's Knot places Sept in doubt... Econostream Media: They Said It - Recent Comments of ECB Governing Council Members
BoJ expectations fizzle out ..... Saxo Bank FX Update: USD bear market status in play. JPY thrashed again.
BCA: What Soft Landing? A Global Recession Has Already Started!
Crescat Capital: Monetary vs. Fiscal Dissonance (The US's annual interest payment on Federal debt is now nearly 100bln over defence spending)
Macro Ops: Stuart Walton’s Trading Strategy Explained
As the focus turns to high youth unemployment levels in China and weaker demographics ... FT : China cannot allow jobless young to 'lie flat'
Looking forward to a MAJOR week ahead:
Adam Mancini's S&P Trade Companion: FOMC Next Week - Volatile Week For SPX Incoming. What Way? July 22nd Plan
Pepperstone: Playbook For The July FOMC Decision
JPM Global FX: Policy event previews for FX
Newsquawk: Highlights include FOMC, US GDP, PCE; ECB, BoJ; PMIs; Spain elections
*Channel* of the Week from Harkster.com:
The "Top Podcast" channel aggregates, filters and customises the abundant research universe. It captures some of the key market narratives from sources such as BCA, Odd Lots, JPM At Any Rate, Macro Hive, The Money Maze and many more ...
Follow on Harkster.
Truflation real-time index shows US inflation is in fact much closer to the Fed's target than official numbers. As of July 22, the Truflation CPI Index is sitting at 2.24%. Truflation.com methodology offers a day-to-day view of inflation, contrasting with historic and potentially outdated government metrics. Taking in over 10million data points, its dynamic methodology responds in real time to global market conditions.
Truflation: US Inflation Update June 2023 | Truflation
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With 10M data points, Truflation seems like a better measure of Inflation, than any of the
Gov't indexes.....