The Morning Hark - 12 Sept 2023
Today’s focus... waiting game, sometimes the hardest thing to do, is do nothing
UK labour data was in line with expectations and did little to spur any activity or energy into the London morning session (Full ONS report). This follows on from only second tier data in the APAC session with consumer confidence in Australia dropping to 79.7 from previous 81.0
FX: The waiting game... not a lot of price displacement from yesterday's London open to todays, as the market sits and waits for US CPI. Battle lines have been drawn, positions have been set, no reason to add/reduce until we see if the markets fear of a pop in inflation are realised. (EURUSD 1.0738, USDJPY 146.80, GBPUSD 1.2510, AUDUSD 0.6425)
Given the Fed blackout window and the magnitude of the impending data calendar, i'm going to use this morning's quiet session to demonstrate how @HarksterHQ utilises Harkster.com to curate, filter and track different market narratives.
Harkster.com is designed to be a Bespoke Research Aggregator
Sell side publications, substacks, buyside letters to investors, market colour commentary and podcasts filtered into one customisable platform from sources including bank publications, independent research, governments/central banks and financial press. (If you would like to recommend a source to add to our +500 library, just email hello@harkster.com)
The app allows one to quickly consume relevant research, to catch the evolving narratives with minimal latency and generate real-time trade ideas.
Follow premium subscriptions, hot topics, custom build your own channels and search and monitor keywords to discover content in our universe on fresh/new trends.
Only consume the content you want, when you want it. Filter out the noise – there are distractions to get past on each platform – ads, memes, algos, admin tasks, spam etc. – it’s easy to get sidetracked. On Harkster, go to a predefined channel when you need to research a specific topic.
Some of our curated feeds are focused on China, ECB, The Fed, Week Ahead Previews, Intraday Market Colour etc and the narratives listed below have been taken from their own designated, pre-filtered channels
Harkster - Knowledge without the noise… Sign up for free at app.harkster.com
China: 3 stories this year... property, currency and EV
Property and subsequent growth downgrades: Another session another report on Chinese property stocks. After the Chinese property index initially sold off over 2%, reports that Country Garden won creditor support to delay onshore bond payments by 3yrs has the index closing now in positive territory. "Sources say the extension applies to six of eight bonds under discussion, with voting delayed on the other two."
Currency: PBoC continues to push back against Yuan deprecation trend not only via the fix but also Reuters reporting that "purchases over $50mio will need pre-approval"
EV's: the one positive this year as their push into EV has catapulted them ahead of Japan and Europe
Europe: Still a 50-50 bet on whether they hike by year end, with the market putting a 35% chance that that hike comes on Thursday. Follow the latest ECB previews in our dedicated channel
Saxo Bank: ECB preview: a hawkish pause will satisfy hawks and doves
Reuters Poll: ECB to pause hiking rates on Sept 14; economists split on one more
USA: Exceptional or not?
Reuters: US exceptionalism thwarts dollar bears but Fed test looms
Bloomberg: The Mighty American Consumer Is About to Hit a Wall, Investors Say
ING G10 FX Talking: US 'exceptionalism' can't last
Japan: USDJPY has already retraced the initial move from the Wellington open
Reuters: What will BOJ's policy normalisation path look like?
Brent Donnelly: BoJ PBoC
ㅤ
If you found this morning’s briefing useful, please give it a ‘Like’ at the bottom of the page. It only takes a few seconds and helps our free commentary reach a wider audience. 🙏
JPM Podcast Global FX: Take-aways for US rates and FX pre- ECB and Fed
FT: Jamie Dimon warns investors over bank stocks if US capital rules enacted
MS Thoughts on the Market: Fall Outlook for Rates and the Economy
Daily Chartbook #277: Catch up on the day in 30 charts
WSJ reporting North Korea's Kim plans to travel to meet Putin
Reuters do an analysis on North Korean ammunition could offer Russian troops flawed but useful support
Follow the latest market narratives through our curated research & commentary channels on Harkster.
All times in British Summer Time (BST)
EUR (10:00): German ZEW
USD (18:00): US10s Auction
The information provided in this post is for general information purposes only. No information, materials, services, and other content provided in this post constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or any financial, investment, or other advice. Seek independent professional consultation in the form of legal, financial, and fiscal advice before making any investment decision.