The Morning Hark - 05 Sept 2023
The Morning Hark - 05 Sept 2023
Today’s focus... Service and Composite PMI’s
RBA: as expected held rates at 4.1% for Gov Lowe’s final meeting. They once again confirmed “some further tightening of Monetary Policy may be required” but it has been noted by the street that they've now stayed at 4.1% for 3 meetings in a row. (WSJ)
After paying their Yuan debt earlier this week, Country Garden repaid interest on their USD 22bln bond (Reuters , WSJ). However, it wasn't all good news from China as Caixin PMI disappointed (51.8 vs exp 53.5). This weighed on AUD, NZD, ZAR and other currencies with heightened trade exposure to the Chinese import/export cycle.
Korea: 3.4% YoY CPI vs exp 2.9% and previous 2.3% ... sticky inflation / stagflation is starting to appear in many regions as base effects feed through. The easy work may well have been done by the global CB's.
Japan: 10year JGB yield 0.657% vs previous 0.594% (BBG: Demand is weak in First of Two Key Auctions of Japanese Bonds)
Let's be honest, not much has changed in the global picture over the past 24hours as USofA enjoyed a long weekend which suppressed interest and trading activity globally. PMI's missed in China but the data is only catching down to Mr Price that has been trading a weak China theme since early August, European rates continue to focus on what the ECB are saying rather than the German recession whilst the rising expectations of a soft US landing continues to reverberate through the press (Bloomberg: GS have cut their US recession odds to 15% "on improved inflation").
It's been a slow start to the natural return to office period as Labour day marks the traditional bookend of summer holidays. As a result, @HarksterHQ spent yesterday listening to some very good podcasts on our bespoke research aggregator platform (Harkster.com).
Steno Research: The Rasputin Effect - Guest: Michael Cembalest, JP Morgan
Blind Squirrel Macro: The IPO of 'The House that Covid Built'
BNP Paribas: Plainer sailing ahead for emerging market debt
What Bitcoin Did: How Bitcoin Fixes Money with Lyn Alden (Part 3)
ㅤ
If you found this morning’s briefing useful, please give it a ‘Like’ at the bottom of the page. It only takes a few seconds and helps our free commentary reach a wider audience. 🙏
Stephen Kircher: Why is the Australian Dollar so weak?
Prometheus Research: Is Monetary Policy Ineffective?
Saxo Bank: EV Race Heats Up
The Bear Traps Report: Inflations Long Game
FT: London's bidding war escalates as rising rates hit buy-to-let
Follow the latest market narratives through our curated research & commentary channels on Harkster.
All times in British Summer Time (BST)
EUR (08:50): French Services and Composite PMI
EUR (08:55): German Services and Composite PMI
EUR (09:00): Eurozone Services and Composite PMI
EUR (09:00): ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CPI)
GBP (09:30): UK Services and Composite PMI
EUR (10:00): Eurozone PPI
EUR: ECB's Lagarde (08:00), Schnabel (13:30) and Guindos (15:30) chair panels
ㅤ
The information provided in this post is for general information purposes only. No information, materials, services, and other content provided in this post constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or any financial, investment, or other advice. Seek independent professional consultation in the form of legal, financial, and fiscal advice before making any investment decision.