Read on the Trading Floor - 28 Mar 2024
Today’s focus… Counting down the hours until the long weekend
HarksterPro will be taking a holiday break from Friday, March 29th through Monday, April 1st. Normal service will return Tuesday, April 2nd.
Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Waiting for PCE...
Theme 2 - All the major risk events are months away
Theme 3 - Week Ahead Previews
Further reading and listening of note
Theme 1 - Waiting for PCE...
We've been served an appetiser today of US data as the market counts down to a long weekend (once we get through tomorrow's PCE without a shock and of course Powell doesn't go off script). The US economy continues to astonish, 4th quarter final GDP revised even higher to 3.4% than its initial estimate of 3.2%. UMich inflation expectations was marked lower, dropping 0.1% from 3% in the prior month to 2.9%. Finally, the UMich consumer sentiment was revised higher to 79.4 in March 2024 from a preliminary of 76.5, the highest since July 2021. Makes you wonder why the market is in a rush to cut
Advisor Perspectives - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level Since July 2021 - dshort
Purity Macro - Gold/SPX rising correlation, PCE Preview and Yen
BMO - Wait, What’s Your Rush?
Theme 2 - All the major risk events are months away
From CB cutting cycles, to UK and US elections, there is nothing appearing in the Q2 risk calendar to move the market away from short vol, long carry. Enjoy Easter, hope there are no seasonal surprises in May and then let the CB's deliver their cuts and keep the good times rolling, liquidity pumping until the Autumn elections....
Brent Donnelly am/FX - Cuts are always 4 months away
FT - Crypto lobbyists are on manoeuvres — and we should be worried
Theme 3 - Week Ahead Previews
Nomura - US ISM, Payrolls and Fed Commentary, Euro Inflation, RBI Meeting, and BOJ Tankan Survey
Newsquawk - Week Ahead 1-5th April: Highlights include US NFP, ISMs, EZ & Swiss CPI, Minutes from ECB & RBA
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Top Pieces
Discovered on Harkster.com
Fitch - China’s Growth Target Remains Challenging Amid Lingering Property Stress
Motorhead - Diary of a Tesla Short Seller: Musk's Desperate FSD Pump
FT - FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years in prison for fraud
Nikkei Asia - Top Chinese banks warn of spillover risks from property crisis
Macro Voices - Luke Gorman: More Dollar Liquidity To Come...
SCMP - Xi Jinping’s chief of staff is China’s new internet tsar, sources say | South China Morning Post
Axios - International court orders Israel to do more to prevent famine in Gaza
Steno Research - Reflation Watch: Has Japan turned a page, and have markets gotten ahead of themselves?
Coindesk - Dogecoin Bets Jump to $2B as Price Reaches Highest Level Since 2021
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