Read on the Trading Floor - 28 June 2024
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Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - PCE
Theme 2 - Can Biden recover from last nights debate?
Theme 3 - Week Ahead Previews
What else is being read on Harkster?
Theme 1 - PCE...
Finally, a material data calendar to wade through and boy did it disappoint. Tokyo CPI, German Import Prices, French/Spanish/Italian Inflation, German UER and of course the Fed's favourite inflation indicator Core PCE all mostly landed on the screws or within a 0.1% rounding error of the streets forecasts. We waited all week to be awoken from our slumber to no avail!!! Quarter end is flushing through, books are pretty clean, as the Euros continue and the traditional summer doldrums approach, it feels like the market is settling in to a period of two months of calm before the Autumn elections and potentially the first Fed move.... See you on Labour Day?
BMO - U.S. PCE Inflation Tame, Incomes Strong, and Spending Subdued in May
ING - US inflation relief and consumer cooldown boosts chances of rate cuts
Steno Research - Portfolio Watch: Don’t underestimate the US consumer
Richmond Fed President Barkin - Why Were Forecasts Off?
Theme 2 - Can Biden recover from last nights debate?
Is it Trumps election to lose? How can the Dems comeback from this performance? Will Biden take a step back? Will a challenger emerge and force a decision at the Democratic summer convention? Who would even have the ad war chest to join a POTUS race at this very late stage? Would Michelle Obama consider running? Would Harris or Newsom?
It may not have moved markets in the short term but all eyes will be on Trump's next statements on economic policy and of course the Fed. Could he really impose 10% tariffs on all imports? 100% on Chinese goods? Will JPow's position as Fed chair come back into focus... Etc etc
FT - Biden stumbles in bad-tempered debate with Trump in Atlanta
Axios - Democrats may want to replace Biden, but it’s his call
Coindesk - Trump Surges to 67% in Polymarket Odds Post Presidential Debate
The Rest is Politics - Advantage Trump: Will the Democrats move to replace Joe Biden?
Reuters - Biden's shaky Trump debate alarms Democrats, raises questions for his campaign
Steno Research - Macro Nugget: Trump firmly in the driver’s seat
Axios - Who Democrats could choose to replace Biden after his disastrous debate
Politico - Democrats wake up to a nightmare
Theme 3 - Week Ahead Previews
ABN Amro - The week ahead: 1 - 5 July 2024
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Top Pieces
Discovered on Harkster.com
ING - Scandinavian FX update: Why NOK looks healthier than SEK
The Lead-Lag Report - Is Japan’s Fiscal Situation Not As Bad As It Seems?
LiveSquawk - Eurozone Inflation Projected To Edge Lower As ECB Considers Options
Unchained - Why the Mt. Gox Repayments May Not Hurt the Bitcoin Price Much
ING - CNB review: Easing continues at unchanged pace with potential inflationary pressures ahead
Nomura - Election Time
JPM - Global Commodities: If you need oil this summer, who you gonna call?
Ecoinometrics - Bitcoin two months after the halving
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