Read on the Trading Floor - 26 Mar 2024
Today’s focus… Waiting game
Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Waiting for PCE…
Theme 2 - The Campaign Trail
Theme 3 - Tragic scenes in Baltimore
Further reading and listening of note
Theme 1 - Waiting for PCE...
Quiet holiday markets with global activity lighter this week as Spring break, Easter holidays and Ramadan weigh on participation, which is in line with today's limited data calendar. Hopefully wherever you’re reading this, the sun is shining and you can relax to re-energise for a busy Q2. After PBoC killed the initial excitement of fixing > 7.10, FX has returned to its slumber waiting for Powell and PCE on Friday.
MacroHive - Will Rates Shrug Off PCE?
Saxo Markets - Swiss central bank surprises; PCE and China
Theme 2 - The Campaign Trail
Pressure is being applied to Labour to roll back the VAT increase on school fees. Is it proving more damaging than good? Surely a taper over 5years would allow them time to build out the grammar school infrastructure and stop the sudden shift of public school students overflowing grammar schools with applications. Meanwhile Reform continues to eat away at Sunak's mandate, will he be taken out before the general election? or will the next leader wait in the wings, pick up the pieces in the opposition benches rather than face what looks like a landslide defeat, as Cons look set to lose seats to Lib Dems, Reform and of course Labour. I'm not even sure Bojo can save the conservaties now....
Telegraph - Grammar schools face being 'swamped' by private pupils over Labour VAT raid
Telegraph - Conservative Party now just four points ahead of Reform UK
Over in the US, the odds between Trump and Biden have tightened, just as Trump's SPAC hits the mkt
Bloomberg - Election 2024 Poll: Biden Gains On Trump in Six Swing States
Steno Research Great Game - Moscow terror, Netanyahu Furious and Biden climbing polls
Axios - Trump's Truth Social stock soars on first day of trading
Both Biden and Trump will deliver similar politics, both will continue to fiscally expand and blow out the deficit... How is 10year still trading at 4.25%????
FT - Bond giant Pimco favours gilts over US Treasuries amid inflationary pressure
FT - US faces Liz Truss-style market shock as debt soars, warns watchdog
Theme 3 - Tragic scenes in Baltimore
Our thoughts and prayers go to the families who've lost loved ones in this tragic accident.
Axios - What to know about the ripple effects of the Baltimore bridge collapse
Bloomberg - Baltimore Key Bridge Collapse: The Supply Chain Impact on Ports, Trucks, Ships
Axios - How Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse became a target of conspiracy theorists
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Top Pieces
Discovered on Harkster.com
Inflation Guy - Changing the Fed’s Target – FAIT non-accompli?
Bloomberg - US CEOs Extend China Stay After Last-Minute Invite to Meet Xi
NY Fed - What Happens to U.S. Activity and Inflation if China’s Property Sector Leads to a Crisis?
Forward Guidance - Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation
Axios - What the two-speed U.S. economy reveals about spending patterns
Doomberg - The Energy War Goes Kinetic
Bloomberg - BOE’s Mann Says Markets Pricing Too Many UK Rate Cuts This Year
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