Read on the Trading Floor - 25 June 2024
Today’s focus… What time does the England game kick off?
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Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Sell in May June and go away
Theme 2 - Data Vacuum
Theme 3 - On the campaign trail
What else is being read on Harkster?
Theme 1 - Sell in May June and go away
Over the past few weeks of May into June we've had GameStop / Roaring Kitty reappear, the ETH ETF announced and the much anticipated Nvidia stock split. Since peak liquidity/scarcity/meme mania/crypto/AI momentum.... the retail space has hit gravity and corrected.
Something sinister or simply a round of profit taking after stellar returns? Some fomo prints hit the tapes as Highlander (Nvidia) saw aggressive leveraged inflows post stock split. Month / quarter end is ahead of us, as well as corp t+2... Nvidia is already trying to rebound after the 3day rout. Maybe it’s just a simple rotation, the clear leader of H1 performance giving back some as investor look to rebalance into "cheaper" stories. Looking longer term, The Blind Squirrel Macro weekly highlights all is not well in luxury goods markets... Pod: Red Markets in Red Wine
Bloomberg - Nvidia Rout Takes Breather as Traders Scour Charts for Support
Steno Research Crypto Crisp - There it was, the height of Mt. Gox fear
Unchained - BTC Crash: $300M Wiped Out in Liquidations
Unchained - The SEC Ends Its Ethereum 2.0 Investigation, but Staking Isn't in the Clear - Ep. 665
ZeroHedge - Futures Rise As Nvidia Rebound From 3-Day Rout
The NY Times - Inside Nvidia’s $500 Billion Wipeout
Theme 2 - Data Vacuum
CB speak keeps the mkt ticking over as there is a limited data calendar today. We have seen CAD CPI come in above expectations (Core 0.6% MoM vs exp 0.2%) but it's Daly and Bowman’s comments that are defining the opposite end of the spectrum. Daly focused on the turn in momentum of the labour market whilst Bowman still sees a risk of another hike despite the US economy hitting a below par growth quarter.
Reuters - Bank of Canada: economy can add jobs and growth even as inflation slows
MacroVisor - Consumer Confidence and Retail Chatter Suggests Slowing Spending
Bloomberg - Fed’s Daly Warns of Labor Market Risks, Nearing Inflection Point
Bowman - Top Fed official warns US central bank may need to raise interest rates again
Theme 3 - On the UK campaign trail
Starmer joins GNev for a walk on The Overlap, Labour will increase taxes it's just not clear which of the major ones yet. For now, PE carry and VAT on school fees are as good as set in stone. Farage focuses on immigration and splitting the Conversative party in half whilst finally housing needs a decade of above avg building just to catch up, let alone get ahead of demand. Are the Cons even campaigning at this stage? Well maybe for the next leader on the opposition bench.
Axios - U.K. elections could mean a big tax bill for private equity
FT - Reeves draws unlikely inspiration from Osborne and Cameron’s partnership
The Telegraph - Farage: Stop funding France until it halts small boats
Bloomberg - UK’s Housing Crisis Needs a London-Sized City to Fix It
Bloomberg UK Poll of Polls: Tories, Labour Continue Their Slide
Man Institute - What a Labour Win May Mean for UK Equities.
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Top Pieces
Discovered on Harkster.com
Reuters - Poland working on simplifying Swiss franc FX loan settlements and court cases
Steno Research - ISRAEL AND HEZBOLLAH HEADED FOR WAR?
ABN Amro - US - The tide is turning
The Brazilian Report - The race for AI regulation in Brazil
FT - Denmark to charge farmers €100 a cow in first carbon tax on agriculture
Compounding Quality - How to ruin your life
FT - Central banks urged to keep pace with ‘game changer’ AI
BIS - Artificial intelligence and the economy: implications for central banks
The NY Times - Microsoft Teams Bundle Hit With E.U. Antitrust Charges
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