Read on the Trading Floor - 21 Mar 2024
Today’s focus… Fed aren’t worried about softer FCI, crypto news cycle turns sour
Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Fed’s 3 dots
Theme 2 - Staying long into April halving?
Further reading and listening of note
Theme 1 - Fed’s 3 dots
Did we learn anything new tonight? JPow has spent many a press conference down playing the importance of the dots. However, like NFP, markets love to trade off every 0.125 forecast change. This evening was no different, the Fed are comfortable with an implied projection of 3 cuts in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
Their 2024 growth is up to 2.1% vs the Dec projection of 1.4%, with core and PCE inflation forecasts slightly higher by 10/20bps or so... They may not be demonstrating anymore confidence that inflation is returning sub 2%, but they're still comfortable with their easing bias as labour mkt stays tight and FCI soften #goldilocks, #justbuystonks
ING - US Fed holds policy steady and sticks with three-cut view for 2024
The Economist - Why America can’t escape inflation worries
ZeroHedge - 'Dovish' Powell Destroys 'Hawkish' Dots; Sends Stocks, Gold, & Crypto Soaring
Theme 2 - Staying long into the April halving?
Along with the lack of momentum, the news cycle around crpyto has turned south, with its use in China money laundering cases, whales tp'ing and ETH's problems have led the press chasing a negative spiral as price corrects.
Bloomberg - Bitcoin Had a Flash Crash
Fortune - SEC probing crypto companies in Ethereum investigation as hopes for ETF dim
FT - The mystery if the Hampstead mansion and the £1.4bn bitcoin haul.
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