Read on the Trading Floor - 17 May 2024
Today’s focus… Lets be honest, not a lot is being read or traded today...
Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Is May already over?
Theme 2 - Week Ahead Previews
Theme 3 - CB speak-athon
Further reading and listening of note
Theme 1 - Is May already over?
With US CPI in the bin, what else is there to trigger some life into these holding patterns. We've got a list of known knowns and not a lot of potential surprises. I guess we cant always be stimulated by markets like 2020 (covid), 2021 (the reopening), 2022 (Russia invades Ukraine) and of course 2023 (aggressive hiking cycles). Here we are in 2024, a lot of money in the system, disinflation continuing but at a slower pace, the world for now has weathered the storm of high real rates, pensioners are happy clipping a 5% coupon (and in UK being protected by the triple lock), China has its own oil field (Russia), AI retooling and productivity gains are fueling growth and carry is king.
As markets drift into the weekend, I guess all eyes turn to Rory, decent start and the course looking soft for the weekend. This looks like his best chance in a decade to take home a major. Although given how easy the conditions are, some would argue its not a major, just another elevated event on the PGA Tour. I'm sure he wont mind if he finally takes his 5th on Sunday night.
Theme 2 - Week ahead previews
Due diligence says we need to be prepared, but being honest there’s not a lot happening next week as mid terms and bank holidays dominate the final 2 weeks of May.
ABN Amro - The week ahead: 20 - 24 May 2024
ING - Asia Week Ahead: Regional PMI figures plus two central bank meetings
Nomura - Inflation Dips, Markets Rip
Theme 3 - CB speak-athon
After passing by the Fed and ECB meetings, we're now in the roadshow cycle. Every CB gov and deputy gets in front of the mic to deliver their 2 cents before the next blackout window arrives. I guess we can be thankful of some entertainment at least given how empty today's data docket is. However the message is the same, nothing is changing market pricing.
Econostream - ECB’s de Guindos: Wages the Fundamental Risk to Watch Now
Econostream - ECB’s Schnabel: ‘A Rate Cut in July Does Not Seem Warranted’
WSJ - Glynn’s Take: RBA Gov. Bullock Alone in Fight to Tame Inflation
FT - BoE needs more evidence of price pressures easing before cutting rates, says policymaker
Bloomberg - ECB Warns of Stability Risks From Global Elections, Geopolitics
BIS - Michelle W Bowman: Innovation and the evolving financial landscape
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