Read on the Trading Floor - 16 Oct 2023
Today’s focus… A light data docket has left the market in a holding pattern waiting for events in the middle east to unfold...
Macro Themes At Play
After Friday's safe haven bid, markets have entered an uneasy period of stabilisation. There is a small bid to US futures, Gold has pulled back off Friday's high but oil remains north of $90. What happens on the ground is still unknown, in particular if the conflict morphs into a regional battle.
There is a greater focus in today's press / research reports on diplomatic channels. Following on from Blinken's trip/discussions with Arab leaders, the path towards a Biden visit has increased.
Bloomberg - Biden Considers Israel Visit, Warns Against Gaza Occupation
Axios - U.S. and Israeli officials discuss possible Biden visit to Israel this week
FT - Western countries step up efforts to prevent Israel-Hamas war escalating
WSJ - Dozens of Countries Scramble to Identify More Than 150 Citizens Held Hostage in Gaza
On the ground, humanitarian corridors, water supply (Axios), troop escalation, as well as small skirmish are being reported.
GZERO Media - Fears of a wider war grow
Telegraph - Iran ordered Hezbollah to attack border
FT - Israel to evacuate communities within 2km of Lebanese border
WSJ - US Push for Gaza Border Opening Stumbles as Humanitarian Plight Worsens
ZeroHedge - Ukraine vs Israel: Can The West Arm Both?
According to the Atlantic Council "Iran recognizes Hezbollah as its most potent external asset and a key component of its deterrence architecture against a potential attack by Israel or the United States. It is unlikely that Tehran will want to waste Hezbollah in a futile full-scale war with Israel for the sake of supporting Hamas in Gaza.... With the unprecedented and deadly Hamas assault on southern Israel and Israel’s punishing response on Gaza, the Arab-Israeli conflict has entered uncharted, unpredictable, and extremely dangerous waters. The coming days will determine whether the region heads to a full-scale war."
Atlantic Council - What will Hezbollah do next? Here’s how the Hamas-Israel conflict could engulf the region
Finally, the events in the middle east are also entering the US political sphere from the House leader elections, debt ceiling funding through to the POTUS campaign trail...
FT - Trump's 'personal grievance' with Nethanyahu gives opening to Biden
Politico - How the attack on Israel has scrambled U.S. politics
FT - Republican chaos complicates US effort to send more aid to Israel and Ukraine
Axios - Democrats warm to empowering interim speaker McHenry as GOP chaos persists
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