Read on the Trading Floor - 13 Nov 2023
Today’s focus… CB insolvency, AI, Sahm rule and much more
Macro Themes At Play
Quiet start to the week, with cross assets consolidating within clearly defined ranges due to the lack of top tier data... US10s 4.63%, SPX 4418, Brent 82.5, Gold 1948, EURUSD 1.07 and USDJPY 151.60.
Rather than look at broader themes, today's ROTTF is going to focus on 5 excellent pieces well worth a read/listen too. Tomorrow’s piece will return to its usual format and publication time.
#1. Steno Research - Are central banks insolvent?
Dario Perkins joins Andreas Steno Larsen for this week's Macro Sunday podcast to discuss the hot topic of the negative equity profile lingering at a central bank near you and of course what it means going forward for markets and politics in 2024.
#2.
- Thoughts on Dumb Money (I did it for Cliff!)It's not easy being a short seller, and this review of the “acclaimed” movie captures the impact regulation is having on the short selling space and the current rules of engagement in the equity market place. The Blind Squirrel's Monday note is an excellent start @HarksterHQ's week.
#3. BofA - The Bull Case for US Stocks
As the market starts to digest 2024 outlooks from the sell side, there's a natural positive bias / strong expected performance from equities in 2024 despite CRE / Real Rates / Recession risks ... in particular the AI productivity gain is seen as a key influence on margin growth.
Another AI article of note comes from the FT Weekender - Here’s what we know about generative AI’s impact on white-collar work
#4.
- Why might this time be different?This is a great read, after last week's "Sahm rule roadshow". Claudia spends this week's note discussing why her recession rule could go wrong this time. It's rare that when the spotlight shines on an economists work that they spend so much time and intellectual energy pushing back against its core findings... h/t Claudia
#5.
Newsletter - How Social Media Shapes Economic PerceptionThis is an incredible longform piece and certainly a timely reminder as we head into a pivotal election year. The impact social media is having on society is a key model input to trading the expected outcome of next year’s PoTUS election. Leave your political bias at the trading floor entrance.
As an aside on this topic, Mindf*ck: Inside Cambridge Analytica’s Plot to Break the World is worth a read.
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