Read on the Trading Floor - 11 Jan 2024
Today’s focus… Inflation, ETF, the end of a generation of NFL HC's and much more
Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Inflation fails to energize the market
Theme 2 - Five of the best Bitcoin ETF tweets
Theme 3 - At least the sports world is active....
Further reading and listening of note
Theme 1 - Inflation fails to energize the market
DeFi 1 - TradFi 0... as everyone focuses on the ETF inflows into the Bitcoin IPO, the second major US data point of January has barely moved the needle. "Inline" CPI across the board does little to change the probability of a March cut. We've been stuck in a 60 - 70% range all week and with Martin Luther King bank holiday on Monday, it looks like we will still be here early next week. Maybe the 30yr bond auction (18:00) can move the needle later this evening...
Source: CME FedWatch Tool
The disinflation story continues to dominate the headlines and with the 5/6 cuts still firmly entrenched in the curve is there a risk inflation has actually based (h/t @EpsilonTheory)
Analysis of the inflation data curated from Harkster's US Inflation smart channel.
Scotiabank - US Core Inflation Remains Hot, Key Will Be PCE Economic Indicators January 11
WSJ - Americans Have Started to Believe Inflation Is Cooling
ING - Sticky US inflation reduces chances of an early Fed rate cut
Steno Research - CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?
E-piphany - Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary
Theme 2 - Five of the best Bitcoin ETF tweets
lastly Franklin Templeton has now got Laser eyes
Theme 3 - at least the sports world is active....
Every piece that I've written in January, I've started by looking at the EURUSD rate and it has been only a spread or so away from 1.0950, and now that the Bitcoin ETF will no longer dominate the headlines, what will we discuss for the rest of Jan? I guess we can be thankful the world of American football is keeping us interested, and on our toes. No Carroll, Saban or Bill next season.... what a world we now live in, crypto becomes centralized and the new guard of youthful attack minded HC's take over the college and NFL ranks.
ESPN - Bill Belichick leaving Patriots after 24 seasons, sources say
ESPN - Bill Belichick's Patriots legacy: The NFL's greatest dynasty
NFL - Pete Carroll out as Seahawks head coach after 14 seasons, to remain with team as advisor
FoxSport - Nick Saban leaves the widest gaping hole in college football history
FoxSport - Eight candidates to replace Nick Saban at Alabama
ㅤㅤㅤ
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Top Pieces
Discovered on Harkster.com
Further reading and listening of note on equities, FTX, China/Taiwan, Red Sea attacks, UK doldrums etc etc
Apollo Academy - The Daily Spark: This Is Not a Soft Landing
- - Two Minute Drill for 11 January
Bloomberg - Spellcaster: The Fall of Sam Bankman-Fried
ING - FX, Rates and Commodities at a glance, the ING team outline their top calls over the coming months
Bloomberg - Shipping Turmoil: Oil Tanker Embroiled in US-Iran Tensions Boarded Off Oman
ING - Red sea shipping disruption rages on and the impact will continue well into 2024
Nikkei Asia - Analysis: Xi Jinping's ambition to unify Taiwan motivates military purges
Bloomberg - UK GDP Rebound Unlikely to Dispel Fears of Technical Recession
- - Your 10 Favorite Stocks
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Those BTC ETF tweets are going in the scrap book!