Read on the Trading Floor - 09 Jan 2024
Today’s focus… Fed, Treasury, QT, Elections and much more
Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Fed liquidity / QT dominating the news cycle
Theme 2 - Election watch
Theme 3 - At least the sports world is active
Further reading and listening of note
Theme 1 - Fed liquidity / QT dominating the news cycle
As the market recoils from the ISM/Payrolls volatility and with zero pnl to lean against, there seems to be more written on the Treasury/Fed's liquidity plans for 2024 than there has been trading.
Steno Research - USD Liquidity Watch: Trading the end of QT
BNY Short Thoughts - Fed QT Discussion Begins
- The Macro Compass - Unpacking Bond Markets
JPM - US Rates: History Rhymes
Odd Lots - Lael Brainard on What Still Can Be Done to Lower Prices
Pepperstone - FED vs. Markets: Who is Right?
Theme 2 - Election watch
As Brent mentioned in his am/FX piece today (Waiting for Thursday), "the first three days of the week are going to be low-vol and boring". As a result, to pass the time as we wait for XBT ETF decision, Fed Williams’ speech and of course Thursday's CPI print, lets catch up on some of the latest 2024 election stories...
FT - Donald Trump’s presidential immunity claim goes before appeals court
Bloomberg - Will Trump’s or Biden’s Brand of Populism Convince Voters in the 2024 Election?
ZeroHedge - Trump Will Be "The Winter Coat" - Charles Nenner Warns "The Cycle Is Turning Down Very Fast"
- - Event risk for 2024 - Biggest Election Year in Human History
FT - In a big year for democracy, don’t forget the non-voters
Steno Research - EM by EM #37: The Taiwan election & the Trade war
Bloomberg - BlackRock Warns of UK Bond Vigilantes as Election Year Begins
Theme 3 - At least the sports world is active
Tiger and Nike part ways after 27 years
Michigan are national champions (... next stop LA Chargers for Jim Harbaugh?)
Rory, LIV and the IPL model
The Telegraph - Rory McIlroy’s IPL idea may be the solution to golf’s civil war
RFU need to align their contract and selection policy with the new economic forces in rugby
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Top Pieces
Discovered on Harkster.com
- - YEN == GAMMA
New 52 week low in China large cap ETF
All the good news in the price?
The Lead-Lag Report - Delivering A Strong Risk-off Signal
Pepperstone - A Look Ahead To Q4 US Earnings Season
🥇The Best of Compounding Quality - 2023 review
- - Fixed Income Monthly Report - January 2024
Oxford Economics - Red Sea shipping attacks add to inflation risks
ECB doesn't have to wait until May to make a decision
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