Read on the Trading Floor - 09 Feb 2024
Today’s focus… Biden vs Ackman, RBNZ hikes, Crypto inflows and much more
Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Will Taylor and the Chiefs win the Super Bowl and endorse Biden?
Theme 2 - Is Biden running against Bill Ackman's Twitter Account?
Theme 3 - ANZ making waves with calls for 2 RBNZ hikes
Theme 4 - Crypto Inflow Story
Theme 5 - Week Ahead Previews
Further Reading and Listening of Note
Theme 1 - Will Taylor Swift and the Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII and endorse Biden?
Lunar NY, half terms approaching in UK, Super Bowl long wkd in the US and limited top tier data all means it's another quiet session. God 2024 really feels like its barely begun (unless you're a MAG 6 trader). It's clear the market is bored when there is a greater focus on Taylor Swift prop bets (how many times will she appear on the NFL Superbowl telecast???) and the fact there is a conspiracy that Taylor / Kelce are two of the main protagonists in a radical plot to stop Trump coming back into power.
Theme 2 - Is Biden running against Bill Ackman's Twitter Account?
It's interesting that Bill Ackman's twitter account is no longer focused on plagiarism in academia and is instead fully focused Biden's cognitive capabilities. Who would run for the Dems if it's not Biden? Cali Gov Newsom? Dean Philips? Marianne Williamson? Despite running an economic juggernaut, Biden is struggling in the polls behind Trump, are donors/voters simply turned off by re-electing an 81yr old president? Bill's money is already on Dean (Billionaire Bill Ackman Backs Dean Phillips to Challenge Biden).
Fortune - Biden's attempt to defend his memory backfires as he confuses the leaders of Mexico and Egypt
Theme 3 - ANZ making waves with calls for 2 RBNZ hikes
NZD 2yr rates rallying to 5% and now offering 120bps more than their antipodean cousins after ANZ strategist Zollner called for 2 hikes when the market was eyeing the next move as a cut. As Brent Donnelly highlights, "RBNZ governor Orr is set to speak Thursday afternoon. That should be a huge event given the overnight moves and the fact that the February meeting is priced close to 50/50." (Zollner is the new Evans) ... will Orr endorse or pushback against Zollner's call.
Follow ANZ and other Bank publications in Harkster.com, your research inbox.
NZD 2yr rates rallying to 5% and now offering 120bps more than their antipodean cousins
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
AUDNZD testing 1year range lows 1.0600-1.0550
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
Theme 4 - Crypto Inflow Story
As the halving approaches, VIX slides and US fixed income vol subsides, Bitcoin is rejoicing a positive ETF inflow story as it returns to 47k and it's 2024 highs. According to ZeroHedge, "Yesterday saw the third largest net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling over $400 million with iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) seeing over $200 million inflows alone, dominating the $101 million outflow from GBTC..."
ZeroHedge - Bitcoin Soars To Post-ETF-Launch Highs As Net Inflows Explode
Ecoinometrics - Bitcoin ETFs: winners and losers
Coingraph News - “Identity of Bitcoin Creator Nakamoto Sparks Rumors”
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
Theme 5 - Week Ahead Previews
After Monday looks set to be quiet, due to the unofficial long weekend in America following Taylor Swifts first appearance at a super bowl, Tuesday's US CPI print will dominate proceedings...
ABN Amro - The week ahead - 12-16 February 2024
Nomura - The Week Ahead – US CPI and Retail Sales, UK CPI and Labour Market Data
SEB - All eyes on US CPI
ㅤㅤㅤ
👏 If you found this briefing helpful, please show the desk some appreciation by giving it a ‘Like’ or a ‘Comment’ at the bottom of the page.
Top Pieces
Discovered on Harkster.com
Bloomberg - Bill Ackman Wants Your Money
Claudia Sahm - The Fed is only looking to past inflation, and that's a problem.
Apollo Academy - Outlook for US regional Banks
FX Poetry - So Puissant
The Weekly Wintersberger - The Pretender
Two Minute Drill - Inflation slowing slows...copper craters...buy now pay later overbought?
Bloomberg - China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Ripple Across the World
FT - Keir Starmer defends green spending U-turn as Sunak claims Labour policy is in ‘tatters’
Quoth the Raven - No Soft Landing Means Own Hard Assets
Stay informed throughout the day with our new commentary channel (‘Intraday Market Colour’) highlighting key notes, topics du jour, and HarksterHQ’s market updates around key data points and headlines.
Available on the Harkster Research Platform.
The information provided in this post is for general information purposes only. No information, materials, services, and other content provided in this post constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or any financial, investment, or other advice. Seek independent professional consultation in the form of legal, financial, and fiscal advice before making any investment decision.
thanks for the shout out!