Read on the Trading Floor - 04 Mar 2024
Today’s focus… Waiting for something to happen
Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Slow start to (hopefully) a busy week
Theme 2 - Are the underlying dynamics of the mkt changing?
Theme 3 - Israel / Gaza Ceasefire
Further reading and listening of note
Theme 1 - Slow start to (hopefully) a busy week
After another extremely quiet day in the FX and Fixed Income markets, we live in hope that the days ahead will bring some life to an extremely dull start to the year. Labour data from the US ahead of next week's CPI will be keenly watched as well as Haley's (potentially) last few days on the campaign trail, Hunt's budget and some dovishness from the ECB.
JPM Global Rates - March ECB meeting and UK Spring Budget – implications for Eur and UK rates markets
Steno Research - ECB Watch: A scope for a decent dovish surprise
FT - What Super Tuesday tells us about the economy of the mind
Morningstar - Pre-Election Budget Preview: What to Expect on...
Theme 2 - Are the underlying dynamics of the mkt changing?
Whenever markets enter such low vol regimes, machines are normally to blame, or passive etf demand, or pod shops, or treasury mkt functionality etc etc etc... Market story tellers always get uncomfortable when we enter a period of consolidation, of balance...
Odd Lots - How the Rise of 'Pod Shops' Is Reshaping the Way Markets Trade
FT - The radical changes coming to the world’s biggest bond market
The Economist - Are passive funds to blame for market mania?
FT - Spiraling US public debt risks action from bond vigilantes
Theme 3 - Israel / Gaza Ceasefire
External pressure is ramping up but for now Israel / Hamas remain far apart on the next wave of hostage releases. It does feel like there will be agreement sooner rather than later as conditions on the ground, in particular food supply has hit critical levels that the West, especially the US can no longer ignore.
Axios - Harris calls for ceasefire, says "people in Gaza are starving"
Axios - Hamas' top priority in hostage deal is Palestinians' return to northern Gaza
ZeroHedge - Israel Opts Out Of Gaza Talks In Cairo, Contradicting Prior White House Optimism
Axios - Biden's plan to airdrop aid to Gaza bitterly divides pro-Israel lawmakers
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Top Pieces
Discovered on Harkster.com
Steno Research - MAJOR TWIST TO QE UPCOMING?
FT - Jeremy Hunt struggles to include big giveaways in his Budget
Nikkei Asia - Japan's once-overlooked chip sector suppliers drive Nikkei rally
The MacroTourist - THE DISPERSION TRADE: BALANCED BUT RISKY
Apollo - The Fed Will Not Cut Rates in 2024
FT - China ‘national team’ ETF buying reaches $57bn this year, says UBS
TKer by Sam Ro - The stock market doesn't care about your Fed rate cuts 🤷🏻♂️
FT - A comprehensive round-up of 2024 investment outlook reports (updated)
Axios - Musk vs. OpenAI: When the lines blur between for-profit and nonprofit
ZeroHedge - Bitcoin, Bullion, & Breakevens Soar As Markets Lose Faith In 'Inflation-Fighting' Fed
Connecting the Dots - Stick or Twist?
CoinDesk - How AI-Crypto Will Lead to a Hyper-Financialized Future
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Do we really want all that much excitement?