Read on the Trading Floor - 01 Feb 2024
Today’s focus… May > March, NYCB, CRE, Earnings and much more
Macro Themes At Play
Theme 1 - Indigestion of news and data
Theme 2 - May > March, QT Live
Theme 3 - Data dependency starts with NFP
Theme 4 - Commercial Real Estate
Further reading and listening of note
Theme 1 - Indigestion of news and data
Too much news, too many CB meetings, too many moving parts, too many earnings... mkt is bloated with contrasting and opposing narratives, leaving little appetite to take / add to risk. There seems like a paralysis from analysis and limited scope to add to risk at these elevated levels and valuations. As a result ranges continue to compress, fixed income and fx markets maintain their churn around clearly defined YTD ranges.
QRA announcement
Fed agree we won't see anymore hikes, but March is not the base case
Bank provisions for CRE portfolios returns to the front page of the finance section
Apple, Amazon and Meta earnings after the closing bell
Lower labour costs, Initial Claims also softening as the market waits for NFP tomorrow, a key input for March pricing (it's final death nail or reopens the chance of a cut)
DB continues the trend of banks and tech firms lowering head count, reducing fixed costs
and that's before we consider the message from BoE, ECB and Riksbank, liquidation of key Chinese property firms as well as Red Sea / Middle East tensions