Morning Call Script - 31 Jan 2024

Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar

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What’s Moved Overnight

• As we've come accustomed too in 2024, another quiet APAC session. 

• AUD a small outlier (down 65bps to 0.6565) after CPI printed softer than expected 4.1% (consensus 4.3%) 

  • The Guardian - Australia’s inflation rate retreats to two-year low fanning hopes next RBA move will be a rate cut

• Elsewhere FX, commodities and Fixed Income have been in a holding pattern ahead of the Tres QRA  announcement and Fed - EUR 1.0820, JPY 147.80, GBP 1.2675, 10s 4.02%, Gold 2035, Crude 77.50 and Brent 82.25.

• The APAC stock rotation continues, another session where Nikkei is green (+1% at 36400) and CSI red (down 40bps at 3230). NBS Mfg PMI for China was inline with expectations at 49.2 (prior 49)

  • Bloomberg - China Stocks Erase Gains Spurred by Rescue-Package Optimism

• Earnings... AMD follows Intel with weak forecast, Microsoft beat earnings on Cloud strength + AI, Alphabet ad's growth missed expectations and was Elon overpaid?

  • Bloomberg -  AMD’s Weak Forecast Overshadows Prospects for AI Chips

  • FT - Cloud strength and AI excitement boost Microsoft revenue

  • FT - Alphabet’s advertising growth falls short of Wall Street expectations

  • CNBC - Elon Musk’s $56 billion Tesla compensation voided by judge, shares slide

Look out for the first Fed Preview of the year, in the inbox of PRO subscribers around 14:00 GMT. It will focus on what is in the price, the markets expected base case view and conclude with a 3-pronged scenario analysis.

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Have a great day, and keep smiling!

Podcast for the Commute

• The Market Huddle (guest Simon White) - Inflation Re-Acceleration

The Day Ahead

• EUR (07:45): French CPI

• EUR (08:55): German UER

• EUR (09:00): German regional CPI's (Baden Wuerttemberg, Bavaria etc)

• EUR (13:00): German inflation rate

• USD (13:15): ADP

• CAD (13:30): GDP

• USD (13:30): ECI

• USD (13:30): Treasury Refunding Announcement

• USD (19:00): Fed Interest Rate Decision

• USD (19:30): Fed Press Conf

Stay informed throughout the day with our new commentary channel (‘Intraday Market Colour’) highlighting key notes, topics du jour, and HarksterHQ’s market updates around key data points and headlines. 

Available on the HarksterPRO Research Platform.

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The information provided in this post is for general information purposes only. No information, materials, services, and other content provided in this post constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or any financial, investment, or other advice. Seek independent professional consultation in the form of legal, financial, and fiscal advice before making any investment decision.