Morning Call Script - 29 Nov 2023
Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar
What’s Moved Overnight
Did the Fed pivot? Waller (a core member of the committee) was the first to mention cuts in the "months" ahead...
Reuters - With Fed likely done hiking rates, Waller flags pivot ahead
After his success in 10s, that's where Bill is now betting ... Bloomberg - Bill Ackman Bets Fed Will Cut Interest Rates as Soon as First Quarter
Fixed Income - There is now a 40% chance of a cut in March whilst yesterday's rally has been maintained overnight. Opening levels for 2s @ 4.675%, 5s @ 4.21% and 10s @ 4.27%.
FX - USD remains on its lows EUR 1.1000, JPY 147.10, GBP 1.2715.
RBNZ - NZD 80bps higher to 0.6185 on the London open as the RBNZ's statement set a hawkish tone, surprising the market
"If inflationary pressures were to be stronger than anticipated, the OCR would likely need to increase further"
Their OCR forecasts were raised slightly from March 2024 to March 2025
Westpac - Review of RBNZ November 2023 Monetary Policy Statement
Reuters - New Zealand keeps rates on hold but warns hikes may not be over
For greater detail on the overnight news stories as well as a focus on the day ahead see The Morning Hark in your inbox around 7.15GMT (2.15 EST) whilst also watch out for Read on the Trading Floor around 17.30GMT (12.30EST) which captures the macro themes trending on Harkster.com over the past 24hrs.
Have a great day, and keep smiling!
Podcast for the Commute
The Rest Is Politics - Why are the far-right on the rise?
The Day Ahead
SEK (07:00): GDP
EUR (08:00): Spanish Inflation
GBP (09:30): Mortgage Approvals
EUR (10:00): Consumer Inflation Expectations
EUR (13:00): German Inflation (Regional prints throughout the mng)
USD (13:30): GDP
USD (13:30): Core PCE
USD (18:45): Fed Mester
Stay informed throughout the day with our new commentary channel (‘Intraday Market Colour’) highlighting key notes, topics du jour, and HarksterHQ’s market updates around key data points and headlines.
Available on the HarksterPRO Research Platform.
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