Morning Call Script - 28 Nov 2023
Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar
What’s Moved Overnight
UST Auctions - 2s saw a 1.1bps tail but 5s was 0.5bps through. Maybe a sign of positioning / heightened expectations at the front end and still some trepidation/uncertainty around the belly of the curve. Another strong 7s auction tonight and the market will be comfortable signalling 2024 is the year of bonds (everyone has been studiously reading their yr ahead previews!). London opening levels has 10s back to recent lows 4.40% whilst 5s is now 10bps lower on the week at 4.40%.
Like Santa coming down the chimney, vol continues its descent with Vix now on a 12handle, DB's CVIX below 7. EURUSD had a 5bps move overnight as it remains glued to 1.0950... USDJPY once again the biggest mover dropping a “massive” 30bps to 148.25... someone needs to remind the FX market there is still 3 to 4 weeks of trading left. Maybe Corp t+2 USD demand can shake up the USD short portfolio (more in yesterday's Read on the Trading Floor)
Commodities - Brent stabilising for now around $80 whilst gold ($2015) is maintaining its gains and remains around its 6 month high
Data overnight saw a disappointing AUD retail sales (-0.2% vs exp +0.1%) and BoE's Ramsden on the wires
For greater detail on the overnight news stories as well as a focus on the day ahead see The Morning Hark in your inbox around 7.15GMT (2.15 EST) whilst also watch out for Read on the Trading Floor around 17.30GMT (12.30EST) which captures the macro themes trending on Harkster.com over the past 24hrs.
Have a great day, and keep smiling!
Podcast for the Commute
Blind Squirrel Macro (The Pod) - Hear me out! Leveraged Finance, but no marks!
The Day Ahead
USD (15:00): Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
USD (18:00): 7yr auction
BoE Speak: Haskel (17:00)
ECB Speak: McCaul (12:30), Lagarde (16:00) and Lane (18:30)
USD Speak: Goolsbee (15:00), Waller (15:05), Bowman (15:45) and Barr (18:05)
Stay informed throughout the day with our new commentary channel (‘Intraday Market Colour’) highlighting key notes, topics du jour, and HarksterHQ’s market updates around key data points and headlines.
Available on the HarksterPRO Research Platform.
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