Morning Call Script - 21 Mar 2024

Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar

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What’s Moved Overnight

• Fed are comfortable maintaining their easing bias, looking to cut rates 3 times in 2024, 2025 and 2026. Music to the ears of USD bears and asset bulls as the global risk free rate will be lowered soon, we just don't know when they'll start.

  • ING - US Fed holds policy steady and sticks with three-cut view for 2024

  • Nordea - FOMC Review: Not getting more confident

  • UBS - CIO First Take: FOMC rate decision

• 3 dots in 2024 have supported a positive mood overnight - Nikkei 40800, CSI 3590, Crude 81.80, Brent 86.50, Gold 2208, XBT 66.7k, EUR 1.0935, JPY 150.88, GBP 1.2790, CNH 7.2115, 10s at 4.27%.

• Elsewhere, Aussie employment data 3.7% vs exp 4%, adding 78.2k full time jobs (employment change 116.5k vs exp 15.2k). AUD the overnight leader +65bps to 0.6630.

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Have a great day, and keep smiling!

Podcast for the Commute

• BofA - Rate hikes mostly kept these markets from emerging, but shifting cycle helps EM

The Day Ahead

• EUR (08:15): French Mar Flash Composite PMI 

• EUR (08:30): German Mar Flash Composite PMI 

• EUR (09:00): Eurozone Mar Flash Composite PMI 

• GBP (09:30): Mar Flash Composite PMI 

• GBP (12:00): BoE

• USD (12:30): Initial Claims, Philly Fed Index

• BoC's Gravelle (13:50)

• USD (14:00): Existing Home Sales

• Fed's Barr (16:00)

• USD (17:00): 10yr TIP Auction

• MXN (19:00): Banxico decision

• JPY (23:30): Inflation Rate

Stay informed throughout the day with our new commentary channel (‘Intraday Market Colour’) highlighting key notes, topics du jour, and HarksterHQ’s market updates around key data points and headlines. 

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The information provided in this post is for general information purposes only. No information, materials, services, and other content provided in this post constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or any financial, investment, or other advice. Seek independent professional consultation in the form of legal, financial, and fiscal advice before making any investment decision.