Morning Call Script - 17 Jan 2024

Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar

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What’s Moved Overnight

• Chinese data dump o/night with Q4 GDP hitting 5.2% YoY vs exp 5.3%, industrial production beat 6.8% (exp 6.6%) and UER was higher at 5.1% (exp 5%).

  • Bloomberg - China’s Economic Growth Disappoints, Fuelling Stimulus Calls

  • SCMP - China jobs: youth-unemployment rate returns, adjusted, stands at 14.9%

  • Nordea - China: Uncertainty remains high

• USD remains on the front foot following the fixed income sell off (10s 4.065%) and negative APAC stock session (CSI 300 down 1.4%). 

  • AUD 0.6550, JPY 147.80, NZD 0.6120, EUR 1.0560 and CNH 7.2190. 

• The message from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Holzman and the broader Davos forum is the market maybe overoptimistic in how many cuts will be delivered in 2024. However, if we learnt anything last year, it is the data that we should be following, not the CB guidance... 

  • Bloomberg - IMF’s Gopinath Says Market Bets on Rate Cuts Are ‘Premature’

  • Bloomberg - Sticky US Inflation Will Wrongfoot Fed Rate Bets, BlackRock’s Hildebrand Says

Watch out for Read on the Trading Floor, landing in the inbox of PRO subscribers around 17.30GMT (12.30EST).

This piece will focus on the key market narratives trending on Harkster.com. What users of our platform are consuming, what themes are top of mind and the key risk events they're researching. It will also document the top 10 links and podcasts consumed by our users over the previous day.

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Have a great day, and keep smiling!

Podcast for the Commute

• The Rest is Politics - Is the Middle East sliding into a wider regional conflict?

The Day Ahead

• GBP (07:00): Inflation Rate and PPI

• EUR (10:00): Dec final inflation rate  

• CAD (13:30): PPI

• USD (13:30): Retail Sales

• USD (14:15): Industrial Production

• ECB Speak: Cipollone (08:30), Villeroy (09:30) and Lagarde (15:15)

• Fed Speak: Barr (14:00), Bowman (14:00), Woods (14:15) and Williams (20:00)

Stay informed throughout the day with our new commentary channel (‘Intraday Market Colour’) highlighting key notes, topics du jour, and HarksterHQ’s market updates around key data points and headlines. 

Available on the HarksterPRO Research Platform.

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The information provided in this post is for general information purposes only. No information, materials, services, and other content provided in this post constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or any financial, investment, or other advice. Seek independent professional consultation in the form of legal, financial, and fiscal advice before making any investment decision.