Morning Call Script - 16 Jan 2024

Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar

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What’s Moved Overnight

• Softer equities, stronger USD overnight - CSI 3285, Nikkei 35673, EUR 1.0915, JPY 146.20, GBP 1.2680 and AUD 0.6615

• Red Sea escalation. In retaliation to recent airstrikes, Houthis rebels hit a US-owned commercial vessel with the most significant missile attack since the US-led counter strikes against Yemeni militants.

  • FT - US-owned ship attacked off Yemen

  • S&P Global - More ships avoid Red Sea as Houthis hit ship carrying steel in Gulf of Aden

• Elsewhere in the region, Iran launched missile strikes against Syria and northern Iraq targets.

  • FT - Iran launches missile strikes against targets in Syria and northern Iraq

• Trump wins/dominates Iowa taking close to half of the caucus votes. DeSantis edges Hayley in the race to be the alternative Rep vote (but in a distant second place) and Vivek drops out. 

  • Reuters - Iowa caucus 2024: Trump dominates, DeSantis edges Haley for second

  • Axios - Vivek Ramaswamy suspends 2024 presidential campaign and endorses Trump

  • FT - Iowa rarely predicts a winner but Trump may be the exception 

  • WSJ - Trump’s Sweeping Iowa Victory Leaves Little Room for Foes

  • Axios - Iowa on track for lowest turnout since 2000 in competitive GOP caucuses

• Japan - something for JPY bulls and bears overnight. PPI 0.0% YoY vs exp -0.3% whilst ex-BoJ official indicated 4% wage gain cycle encourages further tightening.

  • Bloomberg - Japan’s Input Inflation Flatlines for Weakest Result Since 2021

  • Bloomberg - Japan Wage Gains of 4% to Pave Way for BOJ Hike, Ex-Official Says

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Podcast for the Commute

• Saxo Bank - Uncertainty is the name of the game

The Day Ahead

• EUR (07:00): German Inflation Rate

• GBP (07:00): UK employment rate

• NOK (07:00): GDP

• EUR (10:00): ZEW

• Bundesbank President Nagel (11:10)

• CAD (13:30): Inflation Rate

• BoE Speak: Bailey (15:00)

• Fed Speak: Waller (16:00)

  Have a great day, and keep smiling!

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