Morning Call Script - 15 Nov 2023

Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar

What’s Moved Overnight

• FX consolidating the goldilocks CPI print... EUR 1.0875, AUD 0.6500, GBP 1.2490. It is interesting to watch JPY underperform its G10 cousins despite the softer yield (US10s 4.45%). We open this morning "still" on a 150.00 handle. 

  • ING - The Fed is done and market rates have peaked – so what now?

• Asian stocks have caught up to the move on Wall Street (Nikkei +2.3%, CSI +0.50%).

• Data from APAC - China IP 4.6% (exp 4.4%), Retail Sales 7.6% (exp 7%) and UER 5% (in-line with previous print). Chinese authorities also maintained their 1 year MLF at 2.5%.

  • Bloomberg - China Mulls $137 Billion of New Funds to Aid Housing Market

  • ING - China: People’s Bank of China (PBoC) injects more cash to support the weak economy

• Washington - Johnson finding support from across the aisle (336-95) as Schumer and other key Dems support the passage of the interim spending plan. The bill funds parts of the government into the middle of Jan and early Feb, but does not include aid to Ukraine and/or Israel (upsetting Dems) and is also missing the immigration law/spending cuts the freedom caucus are looking for. The bill now passes to the Senate where Dem/Reps leaders have voiced support

  • Reuters - US House passes spending bill to avert government shutdown

  • Bloomberg - US Shutdown Risk Drops as Democrats Back GOP Speaker’s Plan

• San Fran - China's Xi is making his first visit to USofA in 6 years

  • Reuters - China's Xi in US for high-stakes Biden summit, APEC

  • Axios - What to expect from Biden's San Francisco meeting with Chinese leader Xi

For greater detail on the overnight moves as well as a focus on the day ahead see The Morning Hark in your inbox around 7.15GMT (2.15 EST) whilst watch out for Read on the Trading Floor around 17.30GMT (12.30EST) which captures the key pieces and themes read on on our bespoke platform Harkster.com.

Have a great day, and keep smiling!

Podcast for the Commute

• The Inflation Guy / Mike Ashton - This Month's CPI Report - Miles to Go Before We Sleep

The Day Ahead

• GBP (07:00): UK CPI / PPI

• USD (13:30): US PPI

• USD (13:30): US Retail Sales

• Fed Speak: Barr (14:30), Barkin (20:30)

• BoE Speak: Haskel (18:00)

Stay informed throughout the day with our new commentary feed (‘Intraday Market Colour’) highlighting key notes, topics du jour, and HarksterHQ’s market updates around key data points and headlines. 

Available on the Harkster Research Platform.

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