Morning Call Script - 15 Feb 2024

Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar

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What’s Moved Overnight

• Running out of ways to articulate how low vol these ranges have become... consolidate, dull, contained, quiet etc etc. 

• Once again there has been limited movement in APAC with most assets within a spread or two of the NY close ... EUR 1.0730, JPY 150.20. AUD 0.6490, NZD 0.6085, Gold 1990, Crude 76.25, SPX 5000 etc. 

• Following the verbal intervention from Japanese authorities, the JPY decline has slowed (150.20) even though GDP softened overnight (-0.1% vs exp 0.3%) and reduced the odds of an April BoJ hike. However, with US fixed income also rallying off the post CPI wides, the carry differential has narrowed to take the pressure off the JPY (US10s now 4.24% from 4.32%). 

  • Bloomberg - Japan Loses Its Spot as World's Third-Largest Economy as It Slips Into Recession

  • Bloomberg - Butterfly or Godzilla? Chaos and the Falling Yen

• AUD employment data was mixed... stronger full time, softer part time, UER rising to 4.1% from previous 3.9%. 

  • WSJ - Australia's UER Accelerated in January

• Bundesbank's Nagel said it's worse to cut rates too early than too late even though Germany is already showing indications of entering a mild recession

  • Bloomberg - German Economy May Have Shrunk in First Quarter, Nagel Says

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Have a great day, and keep smiling!

Podcast for the Commute

• FiveThirtyEight - Democrats Notch A Win In The Battle For The Suburbs

The Day Ahead

• GBP (07:00): GDP

• ECB Speeches - Lagarde (08:00), Lane (12:00)

• BoE Speeches - Greene (13:00) , Mann (13:50)

• USD (13:30): Retail Sales, Initial Claims

• Bundesbank Nagel (18:00)

• Fed Waller (18:15)

• RBNZ Orr (18:40)

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