Morning Call Script - 13 Dec 2023
Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar
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What’s Moved Overnight
Assets remain in a holding pattern before the main event (Subscribe here for Harkster's FOMC Preview)
FX is where we left it - EUR 1.0790, JPY 145.80, GBP 1.2555, AUD 0.6560 and CNH 7.1965. Similar in commodities (Brent $72.80, Crude $68.20 and Gold $1976) and after a strong 30y auction, US FI is consolidating at recent lows (2s @ 4.735% and 10s @ 4.20%).
Japanese Tankan beat (12 vs prior 9 and exp 10) but had little impact on JPY whilst NZD is the overnight outlier, down 50bps to 0.6100 after food prices eased to +6% in Nov from 6.3% in Oct. This has forced those who have been calling for another RBNZ hike to reassess.
[Paid Subscribers] For greater detail on the overnight news stories as well as a focus on the day ahead, see The Morning Hark in your inbox around 7.15GMT (2.15 EST).
Look out for the final ECB Preview of the year, in the inbox of PRO subscribers around 15:00 GMT. If the market expects should a dramatic ECB cutting cycle, why doesn't Lagarde agree? Why take the credibility hit to repeat the "Higher for Longer" mantra in the face of dire economic forecasts as some key member states enter recessions...
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Have a great day, and keep smiling!
Podcast for the Commute
The Day Ahead
GBP (07:00): GDP
EUR (10:00): Industrial Production
USD (12:00): MBA 30yr Mortgage Rate
USD (13:30): PPI
USD (19:00): FOMC Statement and SEP
USD (19:30): JPow Press Conf
Stay informed throughout the day with our new commentary channel (‘Intraday Market Colour’) highlighting key notes, topics du jour, and HarksterHQ’s market updates around key data points and headlines.
Available on the HarksterPRO Research Platform.
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