Morning Call Script - 11 Sept 2023
Overnight asset drivers + the impending data calendar
@HarksterHQ is happy to announce the evolution of its content offering. Of course, The Morning Hark will continue to arrive in your inbox around 8am London, and we would like to take this opportunity to thank the ~16k loyal subscribers for their support. Going forward, we will also be adding Harkster's Morning Call Script. This will focus on the overnight asset drivers and the impending data calendar. It will be particularly useful for those presenting on morning calls on the sell and buy side. Publication Time: 6:30 - 6:45am.
What's Moved:
Two focus points to start the week: BoJ Ueda and a WSJ article from Nick Timiraos
BoJ Ueda said they "cannot rule out that they might have sufficient data by year-end to determine whether they can end negative rates." As a result, USDJPY is down 75bps from 146.70 to 146.00. The market has been erring on the side of caution, not expecting any further BoJ normalization until next year. Above 150 may still be the trigger level for the MoF, let's see if it's tested following Wed's US CPI.
WSJ Timiaros: An Important Shift in Fed Officials’ Rate Stance Is Under Way... September pause now expected and "the bigger debate is what would prompt them to raise rates again in November or December"
As a result, broader softer USD to start the week with EURUSD 1.0735, GBPUSD 1.2515 but bigger moves from the antipodeans as AUDUSD is 85bps higher to 0.6440 and NZDUSD +65bps to 0.5935
Mixed China picture: CPI softer than expected but no longer "deflationary", PBoC allowed a fix > 7.20 (marginally) and HSI down 1.35% and CSI 0.5% ahead of important Chinese data this week (retail sales, IP and medium-term lending rate).
The Day Ahead:
GBP (09:00): BoE Pill
USD (16:00): Consumer Inflation Expectations
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