Morning Call Script - 1 Sept 2023
Overnight asset drivers + the impending data calendar
As we enter a new trading month, @HarksterHQ is happy to announce the evolution of its content offering. Of course, The Morning Hark, will continue to arrive in your inbox around 8am London and we like to take this opportunity to thank the +16k loyal subscribers for their support. Going forward we will also be adding Harkster's Mng Call Script. This will focus on the overnight asset drivers as well as the impending data calendar. It will be particularly useful for those presenting on morning calls on the sell and buy side. Publication Time: 6:30 - 6:45am.
What's Moved:
Data: Caixin PMI beat expectations, popping to 51 from 49
FX is unchanged overnight only 5/10bps of price bounce for EURUSD around 1.0850, AUDUSD 0.6475 and USDJPY 145.50.
Equities: ESA futures unchanged 4520 whilst mixed APAC session, HSI down 0.5% but SHCOMP, Nikkei, Kospi and Nifty all positive by 30-50bps.
Yuan: PBoC have stepped in again. Implied's over the long labour weekend have squeezed in CNH making it more expensive to be short the currency whilst the PBoC have cut their Forex Reserve Requirement Ratio by 2 ppt. After an initial USDCNH sell off sub-7.24, market is now back to pre-headline clearing rate of 7.27. Even the 200bps may not be enough to narrow the carry divergence between USD and CNH.
XBT: back to 26k and unchanged from the Grayscale ETF court ruling.
The Day Ahead:
CHF (07:30): CPI exp 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY. Given the CHF TWI outperformance will the mkt need to rethink the chance of a hike from SNB in Sept and/or will they look to slow their ccy appreciation policy.
SEK (07:30): PMI exp 47.2
CHF (08:30): PMI Manufacturing exp 40.5
NOK (09:00): PMI (prior 56.7)
USD (13:30): NFP exp 170k (Harkster's 1 Page Preview Here)
USD (13:30): AHE exp 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY
CAD (13:30): GDP exp MoM -0.2% and YoY 1.4%. BoC on hold?
USD (14:45): Fed's Mester speaks on inflation
USD (15:00): ISM Manufacturing (exp 47),
USD (15:00): Employment Index (Prior 44.4)
ㅤ
The information provided in this post is for general information purposes only. No information, materials, services, and other content provided in this post constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or any financial, investment, or other advice. Seek independent professional consultation in the form of legal, financial, and fiscal advice before making any investment decision.
Nice Harkster...like the new report!