Morning Call Script - 09 Oct 2023
Overnight asset drivers & the impending data calendar
Oil, ILS, gold the main movers from the extremely sad scenes in the middle east... CL1 gapped open over 5% to ~ 87.25 and is now settling back lower around 86$, ILS +1.5% to north of 3.91 on the Wellington open but is now back to 3.8750 following BoI news and GOLD almost +1% to 1850.
BoI have stepped in to provide " necessary liquidity for markets".
*BBG: BANK OF ISRAEL ANNOUNCES PROGRAM TO SELL UP TO $30B IN FX
*BBG: BANK OF ISRAEL: WILL OPERATE IN MARKET IN COMING PERIOD
Research and news reports of note that have been published on harkster.com
S&P Global - Factbox: Hamas attack on Israel raises regional energy stakes
Politico - Israel bombards Gaza as fighting rages for second day after Hamas attack
WSJ - Israel Works to Expel Hamas Intruders and Secure Border
- Fidenza Macro - Market implications of the war between Israel and Hamas
Bloomberg - Gaza Won't Hamper Markets - Unless Israel Strikes Iran
Limited impact in G3 from the events... EURUSD 1.0550, USDJPY 149.20 and GBPUSD 1.2200, higher beta has weakened approx. 50bps like AUD 0.6350 and ZAR 19.35.
Before the events, Friday saw news reports of potential Saudi supply in the New Year as part of a UD negotiated Saudi/Israel deal (WSJ - Saudi Arabia Willing to Raise Oil Output to Help Secure Israel Deal)
This week's (Oct 9-15) annual IMF meetings are in Marrakech, Morocco. Given the number of investors, analysts and central bankers that congregate at the conference, volumes in markets can naturally dip. To that end, there is limited top tier data on the docket for the day. CPI in the US the key focus point for the week ahead (The Sat Hark Back).
Have a great day, and keep smiling!
Steno Research - Higher energy prices triggering a recession?
EUR (07:00): Industrial Production
IMF World Annual Meetings
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