Morning Call Script - 08 Sept 2023
Overnight asset drivers + the impending data calendar
As we enter a new trading month, @HarksterHQ is happy to announce the evolution of its content offering. Of course, The Morning Hark will continue to arrive in your inbox around 8am London, and we would like to take this opportunity to thank the ~16k loyal subscribers for their support. Going forward, we will also be adding Harkster's Morning Call Script. This will focus on the overnight asset drivers and the impending data calendar. It will be particularly useful for those presenting on morning calls on the sell and buy side. Publication Time: 6:30 - 6:45am.
What's Moved:
A lot has been written this week on US data resilience, duration weakness, German recession, BoE near terminal, China property stocks, but when all is said and done, we've had little net displacement in assets as @HarksterHQwakes up again this morning to see EURUSD 1.0720, AUDUSD just below 0.6400, USDJPY 147.20 (no closer to 150) and ESA futures 4450.
Higher yields, weaker stocks and USD strength has been the broad but small trend. The market is trying to find its clearing rate ahead of the all-important CPI print next week as well of course the ECB meeting.
The wave of Fed speak yesterday has supported a September pause, Williams highlighting data dependence, Logan open to a skip plus a hike, Goolsbee remaining on the dovish side and indicating that they're almost done (FT: Federal Reserve officials back rate rise pause in September)
There was no data of note overnight, with the China fix the principal news worthy event. CNH trades greater than 7.35 as PBoC eases back the fix, indicating a comfort in slowing but not reverting the deprecation trend. (BBG: China Budges in Fight With Bears, Sending Yuan Toward Record Low)
Have we finally reached peaked rates? Away from the Fed we’ve heard from some key Central Bankers like Gov Bailey (almost done with rate hikes) and now yesterday, BoC’s Macklem (almost declaring victory on inflation). BBG: BOC Governor Macklem Says Victory Over Inflation Is ‘In Sight’.
The Day Ahead:
EUR (07:00): German Inflation Rate YoY Final
CAD (13:30): Employment data
USD: No top tier data
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Interesting "peak rates" commentary.....