Morning Call Script - 06 Sept 2023
Overnight asset drivers + the impending data calendar
As we enter a new trading month, @HarksterHQ is happy to announce the evolution of its content offering. Of course, The Morning Hark will continue to arrive in your inbox around 8am London, and we would like to take this opportunity to thank the ~16k loyal subscribers for their support. Going forward, we will also be adding Harkster's Morning Call Script. This will focus on the overnight asset drivers and the impending data calendar. It will be particularly useful for those presenting on morning calls on the sell and buy side. Publication Time: 6:30 - 6:45am.
What's Moved:
Data: Australia GDP 0.4% vs exp 0.3% MoM, 2.1% vs exp 1.8% YoY. BBG report the beats are due to exports and areas of the economy less affected by higher rates. AUD one of the overnight winners with AUDUSD +50bps to 0.6390
As USDJPY drifts towards 150, authorities have stepped up their verbal intervention. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said they won't rule out any options (NikkeiAsia).
FX: The greenback consolidated yesterday's post PMI gains with EURUSD 1.0735, GBPUSD 1.2575, USDCAD 1.3640 and USDJPY 147.40 little changed from London's closing levels. A wave of weakness in PMI leading indicators from China, UK and across the Eurozone has the market once again focused on the US as the sole global growth engine. This afternoon's Services PMI from the US will be key ... any weakness and USD may give back ground against other low yielders
Equities: SPX continues its consolidation around 4500... impressive resilience yesterday in the face of global duration selling off
Crypto: Under pressure in line with broader risk aversion but the pace of the decline has slowed as Bitcoin tries to find a new trading range sub 26k
The Day Ahead:
EUR (08:30): Construction PMI
GBP (09:30): Construction PMI
USD (12:00): Mortgage Applications
USD (13:30): Fed's Collins
CAD (15:00): BoC consensus is expecting rates to remain unchanged at 5.0% as economic headwinds build. Some economists see the need for further tightening by year end (inflation higher than expected in July and housing market yet to be "tamed") but most expect the BoC to be on hold into Q1 (labour market weakness, GDP below expectations, more inflation/employment data before their Oct meeting). For further reading ING, WSJ and Livesquawk previews
USD (15:00): ISM Services PMI, Employment Index and Prices
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