Consensus
A meeting too soon. Negative rates to remain in-situ, YCC to also remain via the 1% (errr 97bps) implied cap. The surprises would come if they were to prematurely hike, or if they left rates unchanged but pre-signaled a January hike.
Hawk = Early rate hike out of negative territory
Semi Hawk = unchanged but pre-signal Jan or April hike
Dove = unchanged, no fwd guidance, wait for wage agreements
With one eye on Xmas festivities and the pnl mark effectively set for 2023, there's as a sense of dread in London
Option 1 - If I don't set my alarm to keep an eye on Nikkei releases (3 of the 5 meetings under Ueda have had pre-announced sourced stories in the Nikkei hours before the official meeting release) then the BoJ will shock the mkt and lift rates out of negative territory.
Option 2 - If I do set my alarm, it will be a snoooooozzzzer and all we get is a pop back to USDJPY 144.00ish, nothing to materially move the needle and change the year end performance.
Why is it a meeting too soon...?
The BOJ added flexibility to its YCC at the meeting in October... rare to see back-to-back changes
The BoJ will not have new staff forecasts at this meeting