English Premier League Preview 23/24
A rather late TMH English Premier League preview.
Team Previews
Arsenal’s answer to finishing the season a handful of points behind champions Manchester City was to go out and spend over £200m on strengthening their first 11. They will hope Rice becomes the dominant midfielder Vierra was and also bring some of that success back to the club. They will hope Havertz can find some form in front of goal although he looks set to play in a more withdrawn role which he excelled in when he first emerged at Leverkusen. Timber, it will be hoped, can rip up some trees in the defensive line. Add to that the loan signing of Raya as a first team/back up keeper then Arsenal look well equipped to challenge again.
However, will the “known entity” element of them bring added pressure? Last year they were 50/1 outsiders, whereas this year they are strong second favourites to take the title. All, of course, adds to the pressure and expectations. A kind fixture list has them play none of last year’s top six before 23 December, and that favours a strong start again. If that strong start materialises, then does it have the potential to prey on their minds as they look to go one better than last year and take the title and rid themselves of that “bottler” tag?
Aston Villa took huge strides, after Gerrard’s sacking, under Emery and look to push on again this year as they have strengthened the spine of the team that qualified for Europe. As West Ham showed last season for a wealthy mid-level team in the EPL Europe can bring rich pickings and Villa have the added benefit of having a European competition specialist at their helm in Emery. However, the dreaded Thursday/Sunday schedule may make it a tough task to repeat their seventh place finish in the league of last year, although a deep run in Europe with Emery’s CV is well within their capabilities. One worry would be the over reliance on Watkins for goals and what looks like a long lay off for the injured creative influence that is Buendia.
Bournemouth’s reaction to a creditable season after the early travails under Scott Parker was to sack Gary O’Neil and appoint Iraola from Spain and not only Spain but the small province of the country which will make up 20% of all the EPL’s managers as we start the season. A Bielsa disciple expectations are for a lot of goals at both ends at Bournemouth games this season. Losing Lerma to Palace could be a major hurdle to recover from given his all action performances in midfield for them last season. In addition a difficult fixture list which sees them play 4 of the “Big 6” plus Brighton and Brentford before the end of September may bring early pressure on the Spaniard’s reign.
Can Brentford continue to progress under Thomas Frank with two strong showings since their promotion which saw them just missing out on European football last season by two points? Of course the elephants in the room are Ivan Toney’s ban due to betting irregularities which will see him not kicking a ball in anger until January and the loss of goalkeeper Raya to Arsenal. Brentford’s recruitment has always been excellent and big losses in previous seasons, Watkins and Benrahma, have been seamlessly replaced successfully. Raya’s replacement Flekken comes with a good pedigree and has impressed early whilst Schade was brought in last season in what felt like preparation for Toney’s eventual departure one day. Goals will now look to be spread around the squad and in Toney’s absence last year they won 5 out of those 7 games. Back them to have another strong year and a top half finish again. Perhaps Toney’s ban was a blessing in disguise as he always seemed a good replacement at Spurs for Kane. Will they want to sign him whilst serving a lengthy ban?
Brighton continue to impress with easy on the eye football and goals galore. Some corners of Europe this season will be entertained no end when they host de Zerbi’s Seagulls but whether that curtails further progress in the league is another matter. Again the Thursday/Sunday schedule will not help and of course the big clubs over reliance on Brighton as a source of talent, albeit an expensive one, will not help their progress. However, as we have seen in the past, they are experts at picking up “unknown” quantities as direct replacements for these expensive departures and continuing to play seamlessly in the same manner. Don’t bet against them continuing to impress and if you get a chance, whether on their European jaunts or closer to these shores, go and watch them. Speaking of Europe it will be fascinating to see how their exciting Japanese winger Mitoma and their latest young academy graduate striker Ferguson get on on their travels. I’d back them to enjoy a long spell on foreign shores.
Burnley are back but not as we know them. The Dyche days are over and its all about the Kompany. The ex Manchester City captain did a remarkable job of turning around the team when he took over from the relegated squad last season. He quickly turned them around in a season ditching the pragmatic approach of the Dyche days and bringing in a Cityesque possession focused attacking and pressing style of play. They look by far the best bets to stay up out of the promoted three and will be a welcome addition to the EPL. Kompany will of course have the ability to top up his squad with City academy graduates on loan which should help fill any gaps. Although equally he will be linked to the big job at his old stomping ground.
Chelsea usher in yet another new dawn with Pochettino taking over and a whole host of new recruits and thankfully a whole host of departures. This being Chelsea the spending will continue until the end of the transfer window as hopefully will the departures. Sadly one of the key incoming players, Nkunko, whom the attacking third was being built around is out until next year and this may hamper the team’s progress. However, with no European commitments this year and what appears a fitter and more cohesive squad to work with things look brighter for Pochettino’s first year in charge. Expect goals at both ends if his previous record at Spurs is anything to go by and the average age of the first 11 will also be a lot lower than previously. One worry would be in the goalkeeping department where they seem to have lost both of their recent no.1s and recruited a no.2 as their replacement. Not ideal, especially behind what is often a fairly open back line, but I guess it all adds to the fun.
Crystal Palace enter their first season in almost a decade without their talisman Zaha in their squad. However, over the past few years his influence has lessened somewhat with the exciting young attacking threats of Eze and Olise starting to shine in their own right. Uncle Roy is back in charge and shows no signs of slowing down although maybe this time the club has a proper plan of succession when he eventually does hang up his boots. The club looks mid table all over with a lot worse teams than them scrapping it out down below and a lot better equipped teams above them to challenge for the European places. Cup run seems the best chances of some glory for Selhurst Park.
Everton under Dyche doesn’t have the best of rings about it for the purists. Sadly for a team that seems to always say “this can never happen again” in mid to late May every season, seem likely to be saying it a lot earlier this year! In addition, they have a Premier League hearing scheduled for October regarding their alleged financial fair play and sustainability rule breaches which may entail a points deduction. The much needed additions to a threadbare squad are a veteran full back, a winger who decided not to join them when offered the same role back in January and a teenage striker. Far from the cavalry for a team that survived last season by two points on the last day of the season. This will be their last season in their spiritual home of Goodison Park before a much trumpeted and delayed move to the docks into what will be a state of the art new stadium but will it see Championship football before it sees the top flight?
If you are anywhere near Fulham don’t mention Saudi Arabia with the SPL making eyes and dollar signs at their manager Silva and talisman Mitrovic. A strong season back in the top flight surprised many and maybe even themselves and a word of caution this year should be heeded given the large outperformance of both their expected goals for and against last season. Any sign of a regression to the mean could spell trouble for The Cottagers especially if Mitrovic took the bait and headed to the Middle East. Jimenez recruited from Wolves to help the firepower does not bode well either with his record post his nasty head injury. Equally Silva, who did a great job last season, would be a huge loss if he were to go and would severely dent their survival hopes. Its all about S&M down at The Cottage!
Liverpool have at last taken steps to build a new midfield but it would seem, thus far, without the foundations. The departures have taken away their more defensive minded players and their replacements have been more of the attacking kind. Great for the neutral but not so great for their supporters or their new grandfather Klopp who runs the show. With the attacking pieces put in place over the last few seasons to remould the old attacking options the progressive midfielders of Mac Allister and Szoboszlai will ensure plenty of supply going forward but will provide little protection behind them so it would seem Allison is going to be a busy keeper. Its a blow to their ego that the Champions League anthem will not be blaring out at Anfield but a Europa League final in Dublin in May anyone? It would seem to fit the script but may well depend upon them signing that elusive no.6.
Luton have the unenviable tag of being one of the Premier League’s founding members but, having been relegated the season before its inception, have never actually played in it. That is of course until now. Last season was characterised by a tough to beat team who scored little so anyone who fancies attending Kenilworth Road the entrance, which is basically through the ground floor of what appears to be someone’s house and then through an alleyway of back gardens, may be about as good as it gets. All the signings so far are of Championship quality and it would seem they are preparing for a return to those climes but won’t go without a fight and they’ll certainly enjoy it.
It would seem that the only thing holding Manchester City back from more glory is Manchester City and history. No top flight side in England has ever won the league 4 times in a row (City are on 3). In the modern era the great Liverpool team of the 80’s could only manage 3 and Ferguson’s United managed 3 times twice but never the 4. So can Guardiola achieve what the great Shankley, Paisley and Ferguson could not? Having won the treble can they go again? It seems all about the head and the will and if anyone has that its Guardiola but whether the players can or will follow suite is another thing. Creativity seems to be dwindling with Mahrez and Gundogan having left and De Bruyne’s frailties of late. It would seem a perfect time for Foden to step up and nail down a place in the first XI and can Grealish continue the form of last year or is he still partying? Two certainties are that Haaland will score a boat load and the defence will be as miserly as ever especially with the reinforcement of their defence with Gvardiol. The defence of their title seems a more realistic goal than the conquering of Europe again which is always a difficult title to retain.
Manchester United have no excuses. ten Hag has been with the team for a whole preseason and has his recruits in place that he has requested. Last year was probably an over performance in terms of a cup and Champions League football, this year the expectations are even higher as will the pressure if results don’t come. One worry for a better return in the league this year will be United’s ability to take points of their fellow “Big 6” teams. Last year they dispensed with the weaker teams with much ease but struggled to consistently take points off their top six rivals. Much is expected of Onana their new goalkeeper who has been selected specifically by ten Hag as the answer to his building from the back philosophy which ultimately he abandoned last season after de Gea’s well publicised troubles. Hojlund the new attacking recruit from Atalanta comes with much promise but is far from a thoroughbred yet, albeit he’s quick. Can Rashford hit the heights of last season where he seemed to carry the team and can the new captain, Fernandes, lead by example with his play rather than his petulance? Doubts persist but a push for the top 4 again seems likely but a title is beyond their reach surely.
Newcastle United were probably the surprise of the season by grabbing a Champions League place and playing attractive open football as they ushered in the first full season under Saudi ownership. Unlike the Saudi Premier League spending of late, Newcastle’s has been considered and thus far successful without having any standout signings or associated large transfer fee. Howe’s management has developed with the team and its impressive front foot pressing football has been a revelation. Equally impressive, given all the headlines about Saudi money, has been his coaching and belief in “journeyman” type players that have excelled and been a crucial part of the teams success; Longstaff, Willock and Burn especially. Another high finish seems on the cards, but perhaps with European football they will struggle to reach the heights of last season. Still it’ll be noisy and fun at St James Park.
One aside on the club. Will they at some point become a feeder club for the Saudi League or vice versa? This is the first situation whereby, in effect a national league owns a club in another high profile country. What happens if Newcastle are pushing for the league in January and one of the 4 state owned clubs loan one of their star players to Newcastle to help their progress? Equally is Newcastle a bridge to the SPL? Probably not one for this year but worth keeping an eye on.
Nottingham Forest did well to maintain their top flight status through some astute coaching by Steve Cooper as he worked with what seemed an ever moving target of squad departures and arrivals. For their second season much seems to depend on the attacking threats of Gibbs-White and Johnson remaining at the City Ground as without these two creative outlets its hard to see where the goals come from for them to survive. Cooper will ensure they have a fighting chance of survival but it would seem that their best hopes of survival are based on the fact there are probably three worse teams than them in the division.
Speaking of which, Sheffield United! Not much to light up the steel city in the preseason with departures of the main creative outlets of the team in Berge and Ndiaye as well as two Manchester City loanees. Replacements have been scarce on the ground with Traore, who was the top scorer in Sweden last season and is 20, the main hope for goals. Organisation and a raucous home crowd should see them gain some scalps at home but not enough to stay up surely.
Tottenham Hotspur have had that preseason they have probably been dreading for sometime now. He’s gone! Harry Kane has finally realised that he won’t win any trophies at Spurs and moved onto pastures new. However a new era dawns and probably, without the Kane distraction of who will he go to on a fee transfer at the end of the season, Postecoglu can move on and rebuild with more clarity. Goals will not be a problem at either end given Ange’s style of play and they will win over neutrals and hopefully the long suffering Spurs fans will have some good football to cheer. There is no direct replacement for Kane’s assists nor his goals so creativity and goals will have to be spread around. Madison has looked a Spurs player for many a year and will surely become a favourite but the defence needs major work and without the proper progressive no.6 he builds his teams around, is Bisssouma that man, then its hard to see them not conceding a good share of goals. At least he has no Europe to distract him and has plenty of time to work with his squad. It’ll be fun and it would be ironic if they managed to win a trophy in Kane’s absence!
West Ham United’s first trophy in over 40 years has done little to calm the restless fans in the East End of London. Not only that but their talisman Rice has left and the attacking midfield threat of Paqueta is receiving flattering glances from Manchester City. If they were to lose Paqueta as well the natives would be well within their rights to rebel no matter how many Manchester United cast offs they hire to replace them. Another European campaign may appease some of the grumbling but that will only add to the pressure of their league commitments. The new sporting director has eyes only for new European recruits whilst Moyes seems to be eyeing up mainly British ones in echoes of many a Brexit conversation that was had down the Bow Bells back in the day. Its a distraction that the club can ill afford.
Wolves have a look of a team destined for a tough season. Their manager Lopetegui has walked out on the brink of the new season. Remember he does have previous having walked out on the Spanish national team on the eve of the World Cup finals. In addition they have lost a significant amount of their first team squad and have no new recruits to show for the window having spent a tidy sum in January to help ensure their survival. Gary O’Neil, him of the Bournemouth escape job last season, has been given the nod and has a lot of work to do. This was a team that recorded 2 away wins and 31 goals in last season’s campaign so to expect another miracle from O’Neil may be a job too far.
Some things to look out for this season
100 minute plus games
The well documented new regulations to crack down on time wasting as well as VAR breaks and substitutions will see us hit the 100 minute mark regularly. One positive to all this is that they will keep the stadium clocks running after the allotted time so at least the supporters can see for themselves the exact running time of the game;
More cards
Again new regulations brought in this year will see the card count in games rise sharply. Especially of note will be encroachment by managers out of their technical areas and players kicking the ball away when a free kick is awarded;
Goalkeepers on the move but still undervalued
4 out of the top 6 have bought new goalkeepers with Arsenal, Manchester United, Spurs and Chelsea all dipping into their coffers to renew their keepers. United spent the most at around £45m which would maybe get you a squad midfielder or a reserve centre back nowadays. Interestingly the other 2 of the “Big 6” have remained steady with their keepers having bitten the bullet several years back and paid up £65/70m for their no.1s;
Gipuzkoa
The small province of the Basque Country in Spain where 20% of the EPL managers come from. Arteta, Emery, Iraola and Lopetegui. Sadly the latter has spoilt that statistic but don’t worry Xabi Alonso also comes from the region so he will surely be touted as a replacement for any managerial sackings we see throughout the season;
Physicality returns
Rather unexpectedly Manchester City are leading the way on this having at times played with 5 centre backs and invested heavily to recruit another one this close season; and
Formation fluency
City again lead the way unsurprisingly on this one. Last season saw the inverted full back coming into play and being picked up by a number of their rivals (Liverpool especially). Already this season Chelsea used several formations in their opening game against Liverpool and it seems as tactics progress a more fluid approach within games will become more apparent from the top teams as they try and dominate the space and create overloads not only in micro situations, say on the flanks, but in more macro situations whereby City flood the midfield and attacking thirds as they look to overwhelm opponents. Anyone interested in the history of formations and how they have evolved over the years and how indeed they have been revisited and reinvented should read Jonathan Wilson’s classic “Inverting the Pyramid”.
Some things of note from the first round of games
Poch’s Chelsea will be fun to watch this year
Even with the purchase of one or two defensive minded midfielders the Chelsea defence remains porous but they look a lot sharper going forward;
Newcastle look the real deal
Were they one season wonders? Well the way they dispatched Villa and a miserly Villa at that was impressive. Tonali looks a great additional cog to their midfield and Isak looks like he will continue where he left off last season (whenever he was on the pitch) and score goals. Stronger squad and as long as their European adventures don’t take too much out of them they will remain in the top 6 at this rate; and
Promoted three look like having a long season ahead
All three promoted teams look like they have their work cut out for them. Sheffield United look lightweight in terms of who they have recruited and who they have lost. Luton huffed and puffed and showed some promise but ultimately got blown away by a Brighton team who continue to impress. Burnley were no disgrace in losing to City and they impressed with their man on man press but that will be tiring over a whole season as they try to close down more technical teams than themselves. Also all three look like they will struggle to get the goals column (for) ticking over.
One caveat……it’s never wise to base too much on the first round of fixtures!
Some predictions
Top 5 - Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle, Chelsea
Relegated - Everton, Sheffield United, Luton
Golden Boot - Haaland
First Manager to get sacked - Moyes
First major defection to Saudi - If Liverpool are not challenging in January Salah leaves
Euro 2024 Winners - England
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Agree? Disagree? Let us know your predictions in the comments.